Another Dwan “Special”
A few weeks ago we discussed the merits of the hand played by Tom Dwan where he got two stronger hands to fold that were held by Peter Eastgate and Barry Greenstein. We can see another Tom Dwan “special” here in this hand against JC Tran which I recall was discussed on the forum. Here in this hand then Tran folded A-10 with a 50k pot on the river to what looks like a 100k bet by Dwan on a board of Ad-9h-Jc-Jh-Jd. He is only losing to a jack and ties with an ace but was Tran right to fold?
I think what is difficult to comprehend for us is how Tran can fold here because we see footage of Dwan making big moves all over the place on television. But what is very difficult to combat is the excellent balance that Dwan achieves with his ranges combined with his excellent reading of a hand. Tran was in the big blind here and called Dwan’s raise with As-10d which I think is fair given deep stacks and the fact that he was out of position to Dwan who does not make it a habit to fold to three bets.
So he quite rightly in my opinion plays his hand carefully as three betting opens up all sorts of complications including opening yourself up to a possible four bet and Tran knows that Dwan would not need a premium hand to do that with pre-flop. When the flop come ace high then Tran decides to lure Dwan in and checks and also for probable pot control. But Dwan smiles at Tran after he sees him check and checks it back. I honestly think that at this stage Dwan knows or greatly suspects that Tran has an ace.
It is probably based on game history or previous encounters but the look says to me “I know you want me to c-bet”. So when another jack comes on the turn then I still think that Dwan knows he is behind but is now trying to represent trip jacks. If Tran has a weak ace then a bet could take him from the hand and a turn bet also sets up another barrel on the river if he needs it and so when Dwan bets 14k on the turn then this puts pressure on some of Tran’s range while also building another bigger bet on the river.
I think when Tran calls the turn then this confirms to Dwan that he is up against an ace. The arrival of the third jack totally polarises his big river bet but this big bet could be because Tran knows that Dwan knows that he has an ace and is giving him the chance to make a big mistake. There are several betting options with representing quads but if you know your opponent has an ace/full house then it then comes down to if you can make them lay it down or not and this is where game history and knowing your opponent are so critical and this is what Dwan does so brilliantly.
Carl “The Dean” Sampson can also be found playing free poker