My Poker Diary

8 - Analysis

Select Analysis under My Stats, and you will see a screen like this :-

This gives you an at-a-glance report on how you are performing for the sessions you have selected. (This example is for a selection of all Cash Games. If, at any time, you want to view the analysis for a different set of sessions, just hit New Selection, make a new selection of sessions, and then return to the Analysis screen.)

The Averages, and what they mean  

Overall Return - this is the average win rate per session. Example : You play one 4-hour session making 20 units, and one 2-hour session making 20 units. Your overall return is 40 / 2 = 20 units per session.

Overall Win Rate - this is the average win rate per hour across all sessions selected. Example : same as above, you play one 4-hour session making 20 units, and one 2-hour session making 20 units. Your overall win rate is 40 / 6 = 6.67 units per hour.

Average Win Rate - this is the average win rate per hour per session. Example : same as above, you play one 4-hour session making 20 units, and one 2-hour session making 20 units. You have therefore played 2 sessions, one with an overall win rate of 20 / 4 = 5 units per hour, and the other with an overall win rate of 20 / 2 = 10 units per hour. Your average win rate is the average of these two win rates i.e. 15 / 2 = 7.50 units per hour per session.

Standard Deviation, and how it is useful  

Standard deviation is the measure of fluctuation from the average (mean) value across a range of samples. The lower the standard deviation, the closer together the values of the samples in general. Therefore, consistent players will have lower standard deviation numbers.

Standard deviation can be used as a measure of the probability of a random sample's proximity to the mean (or to the extremes). A rule is, assuming that the existing samples are normally distributed, the probablility of a sample falling

• within 1 standard deviation of the mean is 68 percent
• within 2 standard deviations of the mean is 95 percent
• within 3 standard deviations of the mean is 99.7 percent

We provide two calculations on standard deviation, both of which are of good use in setting bankroll and buy-in levels :-

Standard Deviation (Return) is the standard deviation on the average profit (or loss) you make per session. Example : if you have an overall return of 5 units per session, and a standard deviation on overall return of 15 units, then the probability of winning (or losing) more than 50 units (3 standard deviations from the mean = 5 + (3 * 15)) next session is 0.3 percent - i.e. if you have a bankroll of 50 units, you have only a 1 in 300 chance of losing it all.

Standard Deviation (Win Rate) is the standard deviation on the average profit per hour per session. Example : if you have an average win rate of 2 unit per hour per session, and a standard deviation on win rate of 5 units, then the probability of winning (or losing) more than 17 units per hour (see above) next session is 0.3 percent - i.e. if you take 17 units to a one-hour session, you have only a 1 in 300 chance of losing it all.

Can I look at some charts now??  

Yes. Now that we have explained all the figures that will be used in them, we can see the charts...