Value bet river with KK or check?

[Steve50]

The opponent was TAP, I like to take the safe route on the river there and check in this situation, but am I missing out on getting some value there - or is the safe check correct?.

Wasn't worried about the flush, and I think he may have raised a set on the turn to knock me off any potential draw there - I had him on AK, but then I don't really see him drawing that flop/turn to my bets. He would normally enter previous pots with better than KQ, or small pairs. I was stumped! so just checked.




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stejens

[darrensprengers]

you missed a bet and value. if he bets the river you are going to call so why did you not bet?
_________________
The next best thing to gambling and winning is gambling and losing.

-- Nick "The Greek" Dandalos

[The Dean]

For a bet to be for value then you either have to know or strongly supsect that you can be called (or raised) by worse. If this is absent then the bet is incorrect as a value bet and is merely an aimless bet done either automatically based on apparent hand strength or for the wrong reason.

The turn bricked which didn't help his pre-flop calling range in all likelihood. Must say when I flipped the cards over for villain then I didn't put him on a weak ten and my first thought was a big queen like A-Q to a middling queen like Q-J. Based on combinatorics then he is less likely to have K-Q. Don't think he slowplays a set with a fairly wet board on the flop and he likely didn't have two pair based on his likely range and board texture.

The river card hits his pre-flop calling range and so value is thinner. There is value on the river but it a lot thinner than first appears. Also when considering betting for value or not remember that this is a tournament and not a cash game and so you don't have to worry about your betting strategy being exploited.......to explain that better......You don't have to polarise your value betting option between either value betting or not value betting at all.

You can tailor the size of your value bet based on how much of your opponents percieved range you are ahead of and how often he is likely to call with worse. If the value appears thin then bet smaller and if he can call with more hands then bet more. This allows you to gain value more often. You can't get away with this strategy against sophisticated players because you give your hand away but in this instance it isn't a problem.

However...the player profile complicates the issue as well and depending on what sort of player they are then this affects how thick or thin your value is on the river. I think there is value there on the river but its thin.

[darrensprengers]

the opponent has a half pot size stack left.
_________________
The next best thing to gambling and winning is gambling and losing.

-- Nick "The Greek" Dandalos

[TheBlueBoy]

[DCSW7]

[The Dean]

We are not folding if he bets

Since when did we all become mystic megs??????

Thats not the right reason to be betting as we don't know that he bets when we check.

If this were a deep stack situation then this is thin value for me. However because of the pot size and opponents stack size then the amount of the river value bet based on how of many hands can call is pretty much a similar ratio in terms of bets to checks based on how much he has left anyway. If we were both very deep in a cash game then I would bet around one third pot and so we can more or less stick him all in here.

Given that this is a tournament and so he just may be spewing based on other factors like having to be somewhere else and not allowing enough time to play the tourney then this makes value betting even more appropriate and the value is less thin.

[stowjon]

[SeanFoley]

[ThechipLeadV]

[The Dean]

[SeanFoley]

[Steve50]

[Steve50]

Also another reason I check is from what I learnt some time ago when someone said that "if you check in this situation, it gives them a chance to think their top pair (if they have that) is good and therefore makes them bet, but at the same time giving them a chance to bluff a missed draw where you call and win".

Player type dependent though.
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stejens

[darrensprengers]

the psr does really enable you to use any 'clever' thinking in this hand. you cant even check to induce a bluff as if they are even moderately knowledgeable they know you will call with anything.

if he has 30k behind then you can query your preflop raise, your flop bet size, your turn bet size. with a half pot bet on the river meaning he is committed with his full range its a pretty obvious standard bet. if he hero folds after putting in all those chips then good luck to him.
_________________
The next best thing to gambling and winning is gambling and losing.

-- Nick "The Greek" Dandalos