25NL - Top 2 on draw heavy board

[ThechipLeadV]

I've been opening more hands than usual in this session for probably a hundred - 150 hands and I was running about 25/22 over the session to this point.

Have no real volume on either player - 59 hands on the sb playing 12/7 and only 20 hands on the bb playing 30/15. Just thought I'd share that to show that we really don't have much to go on. Out of us three, none of us have got out of line since they have been there.

results omitted and had my own thoughts at the time but thought i'd wait and see first...


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($11.09)
BB ($25.96)
UTG ($8.20)
Hero ($25)
BTN ($25)

Dealt to Hero J T

fold, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, SB calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

FLOP ($2.25) T 7 J

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.90, SB calls $1.90, BB raises to $6.75, Hero ?

[Steve50]

Would be tough decision if it was me. I could call and get raised even bigger on the turn, or they could then check the turn showing weakness when I then bet.

Could go over the top, but who's to know they don't have a set?.

Or fold and be on the safe side, tricky one.

So many possibilities, 77, AJ, KK, QQ, AA, 89 suited, AK clubs.

Or, he is just a drunk.

I really have no idea what to do there, but if it where me and I decided to play the hand - then I'd call the raise for the scenario above.
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stejens

[maxwell675]

all-in for me
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[TheBlueBoy]

[Steve50]

Most would probably go all-in, but if we think about it logically - if you jam this flop, then a call would be made here in the majority of times. The BB does not seem to be worried, not about the original raiser or even the SB calling the continuation bet. He has check raised the current action, and is not going to fold.

So regardless whether the chips go all-in by both (and even the SB with a possible set) on either the flop or turn, they are going in. Is it not better to therefore call this bet, see what the SB does, and find out what the turn card is, and have a better Idea on what comes down as to if you are still strong, or if it's a card that might just help you save some chips.

If the SB is slow playing the set, he's done his call, and now the BB check raises, you call and it comes back to the SB who now thinks from the action it's time for him to raise it up as the chance of being called is now pretty high.

So a deeper thought into this hand, I'd still call.

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stejens

[The Dean]

Not an awful lot of data to go on but even so we need to use what we have to make a decision. Based purely on combinations then it is less likely that he is going to show up with JJ and TT.....possible but less likely. So 77 is more likely in term of sets. 30/15 indicates someone who is leaning towards the passive side but not overdoing it.....like I said....not much to work with but on the fly then a 30/15 (if this is what he remains) will likely not check-raise on a draw although that is a possibility.

AA-QQ likely three bets pre but if he is 30% VPIP then hands like 10-7s and J-7s now come into the bottom end of that range. He could hold AJ, KJ or even J-9 for top pair+gutshot although once again don't think a true 30/15 plays a c/r line here. The problem is what he makes of you and you have c-bet on a wet board into two opponents whose ranges have hit a fair portion of it. Any smart player would realise that they have little FE and not semi-bluff raise on a draw but we don't know him.

Because of so little data then you have to be prepared to at least call the c/r. A combo of beating a fair portion of his pre-flop range and also his flop check-raise range indicates that you absolutely cannot fold. Then we have the x-factor based on that we simply don't know him. So because of that then we cannot go away on the flop. If we stack on the flop (not saying yet that we should) and get called by 7-7 then simply use the info for future hands and at least we know he isnt a buckeroo and that his 30/15 may be more credible as someone that maybe calls too many raises without striving for the initiative in the hand pre-flop but switches to orthodox post flop which is standard for most players.

Too many ifs to fold and if we fold then we may be laying the groundwork for getting run over in future if they are being LAGGY. There is simply too little data here to fold IMO and so the question is do we shove or call the raise? I think it is marginal because of the presence of the other player. At NL25 then there are more unknowns based on wackier play. I think stacking on the flop often leaves you isolated against a stronger hand like 77 and the few times they show up with JJ-TT.

Unless they show up with 10-7s....J-7s which is the bottom of a 30% VPIP then stacking is not for value as would someone stack for 100bb with A-J......doubtful as your play says that you beat that. But then again this is NL25 and I play slightly higher and so have to be careful. Also got to remember that 9-8s is in his range also (forgot about that) and so I don't think based on this that stacking on the flop is the right play. I think calling the raise gives more flexibility.

There are some hands that you beat in his range like A-J, K-J and 10-7s, J-7s but I don't think you are beating enough of his range to stack off if there are no draws in that range which I am leaning towards thinking not if he is 30/15 unless he has something like Kc-Qc. You may need the value of the other player calling the raise as well and so my play is to call the c/r and re-assess on the turn.

[DCSW7]

I guess I'm the only one folding here
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Not surprised Xavi's been replaced. His pass completion rate was only 89%. Useless.

[The Dean]

[hackett]

[DCSW7]