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Joe The Elegance Beevers
Mobster


Joined: 18 Sep 2003
Posts: 1935

PostPosted: Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:39 pm
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Value Bet At Blue Square

Blue Square have a market on what the chip leader will have at the end of day one in this years WSOP main event. Last year with 5619 entrants the leader had 169,200. Then it went 156,600 : 150,250 : 145/142/136/131/130 with 19 players being over the 100k mark.

In 2004 with 2576 players the leader had 129,525 then it went 127, 107, 105, 103, 102 with 6 players being over the 100k mark.

They bet like this:

200-249 7/4 0.363636364
150-199 5/2 0.285714286
over 250 7/2 0.222222222
100-149 11/2 0.153846154
under 100 8/1 0.111111111
1.136530137%

I think that you can completely discount under 100 which makes things a little easier. There are going to be somewhere between 7,500 and 10,000 entrants and i reckon that it will be around or just under 8,000.

Although 250+ is achievable I think that there is value at 5/2 in the 150-199 range. This is how I would bet:

200-249 5/2 0.285714286
150-199 6/4 0.4
over 250 9/2 0.181818182
100-149 8/1 0.111111111
under 100 33/1 0.029411765
1.008055343%

I only managed to get 250 at 5/2.

Open your Blue Square account using this link and get a 25 FREE Bet:
http://www.bluesq.com/bet?AFF_ID=353
MattF
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Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Posts: 459

PostPosted: Thu Jul 27, 2006 10:16 pm
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From a mathematical perspective it should be approximately proportional to the square root of number of entries.

So how does that compare with the data ... well not very well Embarassed if you just compare the two chip leaders figures. However sqrt(5619/2576) = 1.48 and the averages of the top few seem to be in this proportion with clusters around 100K and 150K. But the outlier chip leader is (not surprisingly) a bit higher. So for 8000 entries I'd expect to see a cluster around 175K but the leader could be around 190K-210K.
CarpeAnnum
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Joined: 09 Oct 2005
Posts: 617

PostPosted: Thu Jul 27, 2006 10:24 pm
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MattF wrote:
From a mathematical perspective it should be approximately proportional to the square root of number of entries.

So how does that compare with the data ... well not very well Embarassed if you just compare the two chip leaders figures. However sqrt(5619/2576) = 1.48 and the averages of the top few seem to be in this proportion with clusters around 100K and 150K. But the outlier chip leader is (not surprisingly) a bit higher. So for 8000 entries I'd expect to see a cluster around 175K but the leader could be around 190K-210K.

So on that reckoning the leader could be around 190k-210k that makes 6/4 look big? I believe though that the more entries doesn't work proportionally to the leader. Time played remains the same so I would expect the chip leader to be lower than you estimate. I got some 5/2 which I agree is value.
MattF
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Posts: 459

PostPosted: Thu Jul 27, 2006 11:39 pm
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Well it's proportional to the square root, not linearly.

Since I expect a cluster at 175K I'd have to make the probabilities something like:

<150K ... 10%
150K-175K ... 15%
175K-200K ... 25%
200K-250K ... 35%
250K+ ... 15%

So my odds would be:
250K+ ~ 6-1 (betfair 7-2 no value, joe 9-2)
200K-250K ~ 2-1 (betfair 7-4 no value, joe 5-2)
150K-200K ~ 6-4 (betfair 5-2 value!!!, joe also 6-4)
100K-150K ~ 9-1 (betfair 11-2 no value, joe 8-1)
Joe The Elegance Beevers
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Joined: 18 Sep 2003
Posts: 1935

PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2006 5:23 pm
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Quote:
Chip Counts of Players Remaining for Day 2-A on 8/1/06:

Player Name Chip Count Table # Seat #
Hossein Tagh Avi $229,125 130 2
Francis Cipriano $123,200 40 4
Wesley Wilburn $122,200 131 2
Ken Jacobs $119,106 40 2
Paul McCeffrey $110,650 70 4


It's a shame you can't eat value. I guess they had to get lucky sometime Smile
reevio
Full House


Joined: 31 Aug 2004
Posts: 1348
Location: London

PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:52 pm
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Indeed. Although from what I can see, if it wasn't for the one freak stack, the leader would have been under 150k which is lower than either of us expected.

There are some Day 2 Match Bets up now in the same section if anyone wants an in-running interest.

Jamie.
Joe The Elegance Beevers
Mobster


Joined: 18 Sep 2003
Posts: 1935

PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 6:29 pm
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Oh Dear Oh Dear...

Look like there was a mistake with Mr Avi. Consolidated list for all four days shows:

Hossein Tagh Avi $29,125 130 2

and not $229,125 as before.

The highest I can find is:

Hung Tran $177,475 64 1

Which would mean that we can eat the value. Jamie please confirm you agree. Thanks.
Moo
Quads


Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 1613
Location: @ The Profit Centre

PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 7:20 pm
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MattF wrote:
From a mathematical perspective it should be approximately proportional to the square root of number of entries.


Why?
reevio
Full House


Joined: 31 Aug 2004
Posts: 1348
Location: London

PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:44 pm
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And I just had a bet with another non-believer at Blue Square who thought the chip counts were wrong.... Smile

I'll sort it out in the morning Joe. Congrats if you're right.

Jamie.
MattF
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:59 pm
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Moo wrote:
MattF wrote:
From a mathematical perspective it should be approximately proportional to the square root of number of entries.


Why?


Because the chips are very roughly going to be in a normal distribution and the standard deviation rises proportionally to the square root.

When I said that I could see that the number of levels and blind sizes would tend to dampen that down, but I perhaps under-estimated how close we were to that effect kicking in. I'm astonished there arent many 150K+ stack to be honest.
Joe The Elegance Beevers
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Joined: 18 Sep 2003
Posts: 1935

PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:07 pm
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from today's reporting thread:


This is Hossein Tagh Avi, who has been mistakenly reported as chip leader from the opening days with over 200,000 in chips. He actually started today with 29,125 and is down about 1,000 of those at the start this afternoon. We're guessing he put a dollar sign in front of his count which was mistaken for a '2'.
reevio
Full House


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Posts: 1348
Location: London

PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:45 pm
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Well there goes his 10 minutes of fame - those chips aint gonna last long now Very Happy
Joe The Elegance Beevers
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Joined: 18 Sep 2003
Posts: 1935

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:26 am
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Neither will the profits in the Voodoo Lounge but a winner is a winner:

Event info: Chip Count After Day 1
World Series of Poker
20:00 28/07/2006
Market: End of Day 1 Chip Leader
Selection: 150k-199k @ 5/2 Win
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