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MattF
Straight
Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Posts: 450
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 Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 12:34 am
Post subject: Re: Final Table - 6 left - AQ on button - SB 0.5BB's |
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| You need more like 70% EV here. Easy fold with AQ. smoothcallz's TT+ looks about right. |
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evelyn
Quads
Joined: 16 Mar 2007
Posts: 2097
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Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 2:18 am
Post subject: Re: Final Table - 6 left - AQ on button - SB 0.5BB's |
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| I'd estimate it at between 55 and 60 and taking the players to act into account I'd fold AQo and call with 99+ AQs AKo. If utg is shoving wide AQ is fine but the sb's all in regardless, he's shoving into a big stack in the bb and with PS software he has a fifty-fifty chance of jumping the bb in the next hand (if the sb loses v bb he'll move straight into sb next hand) so he shouldn't be shoving wide imo. |
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darrensprengers
Misclick
Joined: 10 Jul 2007
Posts: 6920
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Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 11:50 am
Post subject: Re: Final Table - 6 left - AQ on button - SB 0.5BB's |
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6 handed.
a flatish payout structure
A utg shove for 5 bbs
AQo on the button when you have 10 bigs yourself
Chip leader has 20 bigs
you could argue about the micro stack but you will still have more chips than them if you lose the coinflip vs the 44. The BB wakes up with AK. ggwp. AQ is going to be huge vs a utg 6 handed shove with 5 bigs.
If the AQ is a bad shove you must think the AK call for over half your stack is atrocious.
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The next best thing to gambling and winning is gambling and losing.
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stowjon
Royal Flush
Joined: 26 Oct 2008
Posts: 7466
Location: willingham
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Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 3:29 pm
Post subject: Re: Final Table - 6 left - AQ on button - SB 0.5BB's |
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i see this a a fold ZERO times in this spot.
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"There's not enough hippies to save our lives, We need more hippies" |
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Jackdaw
Full House
Joined: 01 Oct 2005
Posts: 964
Location: Dorset
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Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 4:52 pm
Post subject: Re: Final Table - 6 left - AQ on button - SB 0.5BB's |
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| I too, never fold here. |
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knifeboy62
Full House
Joined: 05 Nov 2006
Posts: 1442
Location: Bristol
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Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:39 pm
Post subject: Re: Final Table - 6 left - AQ on button - SB 0.5BB's |
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| MattF wrote: | | You need more like 70% EV here. Easy fold with AQ. smoothcallz's TT+ looks about right. |
I think you mean that you would need 70% equity against the UTG raise.
Here is my version of the approx ev calcs.
Before hand starts you have 15.5% of chips so approx $632 chip value (15.5% of top 6 payouts).
If you fold and assume SB calls (and loses) then SB gets the 6th place money and your 15.5% of chips is now worth $587 (15.5% of top 5 payouts).
So by folding and having SB call and lose you lose $45 of payout equity.
If you call, SB calls, BB folds and you win then you are up to about 24.4% of chips, worth $923 of prize equity.
If you call, SB calls, BB folds and you lose to UTG then you will have about 7.5% of chips, worth $282 (but 5th prize is $366 so can't have less equity than that anyway).
If you win 40% of the time and lose 60% versus UTG then you end up in the same situation as folding, i.e. on average losing $45 of payout equity. I said 48% before because I had forgotten you cannot have less equity than last remaining payout.
Even with the BB calling 10% of the time here and winning 75% of the time when they do you would still be better to shove here with 50% equity versus UTG range rather than folding.
If you think UTG is shoving with 5BB at least as wide as any pair, A8+, KT+ then it is better to shove than fold with AQ.
UTG would need to be Mr Rocky McRockerson not to be shoving at least that wide I think so AQ is a shove for me all day and every day.
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"Brandon Uhl @BrandonUhl
@knifeboy62 @limonpoker Ty mike love your poker game your a boss" - lolz |
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evelyn
Quads
Joined: 16 Mar 2007
Posts: 2097
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Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 11:20 pm
Post subject: Re: Final Table - 6 left - AQ on button - SB 0.5BB's |
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| knifeboy62 wrote: | If you think UTG is shoving with 5BB at least as wide as any pair, A8+, KT+ then it is better to shove than fold with AQ.
UTG would need to be Mr Rocky McRockerson not to be shoving at least that wide I think so AQ is a shove for me all day and every day. |
Why didn't you just stick it into an ICM calulator ? Doing that shows that you need 60% v utg in this situation. That's utg shoving any pair, any broadway, any ace. |
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knifeboy62
Full House
Joined: 05 Nov 2006
Posts: 1442
Location: Bristol
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Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 10:35 am
Post subject: Re: Final Table - 6 left - AQ on button - SB 0.5BB's |
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| evelyn wrote: | | knifeboy62 wrote: | If you think UTG is shoving with 5BB at least as wide as any pair, A8+, KT+ then it is better to shove than fold with AQ.
UTG would need to be Mr Rocky McRockerson not to be shoving at least that wide I think so AQ is a shove for me all day and every day. |
Why didn't you just stick it into an ICM calulator ? Doing that shows that you need 60% v utg in this situation. That's utg shoving any pair, any broadway, any ace. |
Fair point Evelyn. The only reason I try to work things out myself is sometimes is it sticks in my mind more if I do it that way rather than plugging into a calculator and trying to memorise the result. A bit like repeatedly using a pocket calculator to try to memorise 12 times tables would not have worked for me but that's just a personal thing I know.
I would love to understand why the answer is 60% though, i.e. why my workings are so far out? I find I get more from knowing why an answer is what it is rather than just knowing what the answer is. Knowing why may be able to help me apply similar logic/analysis to a different situation.
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"Brandon Uhl @BrandonUhl
@knifeboy62 @limonpoker Ty mike love your poker game your a boss" - lolz |
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evelyn
Quads
Joined: 16 Mar 2007
Posts: 2097
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Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 1:31 pm
Post subject: Re: Final Table - 6 left - AQ on button - SB 0.5BB's |
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| knifeboy62 wrote: | | I would love to understand why the answer is 60% though, i.e. why my workings are so far out? I find I get more from knowing why an answer is what it is rather than just knowing what the answer is. Knowing why may be able to help me apply similar logic/analysis to a different situation. |
You biggest mistake is treating 0 chips as being worth nothing when it's worth $292.40. That vastly exaggerates the loss of equity from losing the hand. |
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zebediah
Royal Flush
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 5715
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Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 2:19 pm
Post subject: Re: Final Table - 6 left - AQ on button - SB 0.5BB's |
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100% jam for me, UTG has a wide range, and you can only bust if BB wakes up with a monster...bad luck.
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knifeboy62
Full House
Joined: 05 Nov 2006
Posts: 1442
Location: Bristol
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Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 8:50 am
Post subject: Re: Final Table - 6 left - AQ on button - SB 0.5BB's |
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| evelyn wrote: | | knifeboy62 wrote: | | I would love to understand why the answer is 60% though, i.e. why my workings are so far out? I find I get more from knowing why an answer is what it is rather than just knowing what the answer is. Knowing why may be able to help me apply similar logic/analysis to a different situation. |
You biggest mistake is treating 0 chips as being worth nothing when it's worth $292.40. That vastly exaggerates the loss of equity from losing the hand. |
I did not do that in fact but thanks for the reply.
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"Brandon Uhl @BrandonUhl
@knifeboy62 @limonpoker Ty mike love your poker game your a boss" - lolz |
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evelyn
Quads
Joined: 16 Mar 2007
Posts: 2097
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Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 3:18 pm
Post subject: Re: Final Table - 6 left - AQ on button - SB 0.5BB's |
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| knifeboy62 wrote: | | evelyn wrote: | | knifeboy62 wrote: | | I would love to understand why the answer is 60% though, i.e. why my workings are so far out? I find I get more from knowing why an answer is what it is rather than just knowing what the answer is. Knowing why may be able to help me apply similar logic/analysis to a different situation. |
You biggest mistake is treating 0 chips as being worth nothing when it's worth $292.40. That vastly exaggerates the loss of equity from losing the hand. |
I did not do that in fact but thanks for the reply. |
"If you fold and assume SB calls (and loses) then SB gets the 6th place money and your 15.5% of chips is now worth $587 (15.5% of top 5 payouts).
So by folding and having SB call and lose you lose $45 of payout equity."
You have ignored that hero is now guaranteed the 5th place prize money. Obviously equity is GAINED when the short stack gets knocked out. |
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knifeboy62
Full House
Joined: 05 Nov 2006
Posts: 1442
Location: Bristol
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Posted: Fri Mar 09, 2012 9:10 am
Post subject: Re: Final Table - 6 left - AQ on button - SB 0.5BB's |
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| evelyn wrote: | | knifeboy62 wrote: | | evelyn wrote: | | knifeboy62 wrote: | | I would love to understand why the answer is 60% though, i.e. why my workings are so far out? I find I get more from knowing why an answer is what it is rather than just knowing what the answer is. Knowing why may be able to help me apply similar logic/analysis to a different situation. |
You biggest mistake is treating 0 chips as being worth nothing when it's worth $292.40. That vastly exaggerates the loss of equity from losing the hand. |
I did not do that in fact but thanks for the reply. |
"If you fold and assume SB calls (and loses) then SB gets the 6th place money and your 15.5% of chips is now worth $587 (15.5% of top 5 payouts).
So by folding and having SB call and lose you lose $45 of payout equity."
You have ignored that hero is now guaranteed the 5th place prize money. Obviously equity is GAINED when the short stack gets knocked out. |
Not correct Evelyn, equity is lost but minimum prize you will win is gained.
Short stack gets knocked out and picks up 6th place money. Hero now has 15.5% of chips in play still but prize pool remaining is prizes 1-5. Hero has no claim on 15.5% of the 6th place money, which has already been paid out.
Your 15.5% is now worth $45 less in chip equity but you are now guaranteed 5th place so the minimum you will win has gone up by $74.
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"Brandon Uhl @BrandonUhl
@knifeboy62 @limonpoker Ty mike love your poker game your a boss" - lolz |
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evelyn
Quads
Joined: 16 Mar 2007
Posts: 2097
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Posted: Fri Mar 09, 2012 2:32 pm
Post subject: Re: Final Table - 6 left - AQ on button - SB 0.5BB's |
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| knifeboy62 wrote: | | evelyn wrote: | | knifeboy62 wrote: | | evelyn wrote: | | knifeboy62 wrote: | | I would love to understand why the answer is 60% though, i.e. why my workings are so far out? I find I get more from knowing why an answer is what it is rather than just knowing what the answer is. Knowing why may be able to help me apply similar logic/analysis to a different situation. |
You biggest mistake is treating 0 chips as being worth nothing when it's worth $292.40. That vastly exaggerates the loss of equity from losing the hand. |
I did not do that in fact but thanks for the reply. |
"If you fold and assume SB calls (and loses) then SB gets the 6th place money and your 15.5% of chips is now worth $587 (15.5% of top 5 payouts).
So by folding and having SB call and lose you lose $45 of payout equity."
You have ignored that hero is now guaranteed the 5th place prize money. Obviously equity is GAINED when the short stack gets knocked out. |
Not correct Evelyn, equity is lost but minimum prize you will win is gained.
Short stack gets knocked out and picks up 6th place money. Hero now has 15.5% of chips in play still but prize pool remaining is prizes 1-5. Hero has no claim on 15.5% of the 6th place money, which has already been paid out.
Your 15.5% is now worth $45 less in chip equity but you are now guaranteed 5th place so the minimum you will win has gone up by $74. |
Chip equity is measured in chips and $ equity is measured in $. You seem to be confused about this. |
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knifeboy62
Full House
Joined: 05 Nov 2006
Posts: 1442
Location: Bristol
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Posted: Fri Mar 09, 2012 2:48 pm
Post subject: Re: Final Table - 6 left - AQ on button - SB 0.5BB's |
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| evelyn wrote: |
Chip equity is measured in chips and $ equity is measured in $. You seem to be confused about this. |
Thanks for the insight. I have not used ICM calcs before but went away and had a go based on your advice.
Using ICM calculator before play hero had $791 equity
If hero folds and SB calls and loses that goes up very slightly to $796
If calls and wins he gets to $937 equity (gain of ~$146)
If calls and loses to UTG he drops to $631 (loss of ~$160)
For me that means you need to call and win about 55% of the time to be $ev neutral versus a fold. I think that the fact this is not too different to what I said based on (flawed) chip count equity is more coincidence than anything else.
Playing about the calculator it looks like you have a bell curve of sorts where the highest and lowest chip stacks have less $eqity % than their chip equity % and the stacks in the middle have higher. Is that a good rule of thumb?
_________________
"Brandon Uhl @BrandonUhl
@knifeboy62 @limonpoker Ty mike love your poker game your a boss" - lolz |
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