Where's the BBV thread? £1/£2 live 3-bet pot.

[Alex B]

Since I haven't found a BBV thread, I'll pretend this is a strategy question:

£1/£2 NLHE 9 handed. Not too much history, but villain isn't nitty, plays confidently and talks about playing online. There hasn't been much 3-betting especially from the blinds. About £300 effective stacks.

(bu) Opens to 8
(sb) Hero (KcQc) 3-bets to 28
(bb) Passes
(bu) Calls

Pot £57.50 (because the #@*$s at the Fox have taken a promo 50p);

Flop As8h4c

Hero bets £36, villain calls.

Pot £129.50, about £225 behind. Turn 5c.

Hero?

My thoughts in the first spoiler, result in the 2nd.

Spoiler: I think villains range is A-x probably without AK (some 4-bets pre), sets and floats. I think my range looks like TT+, AJ+, KQ. I like a check-raise shove because I don't think I look like I ever take a stack-a-donk line with less than AJ+, I think villain bet's his floats (and I can't just call because he sometimes has 8x/small pairs or sucks out) but checks back the hands he is most likely to call a check-raise with, like AJ, because he's WA/WB. So, check planning to raise means I make fewer bad bluffs, and get a free card for the flush draw against his strongest hands. I also think that if he does bet Ax when he has it, he folds to the shove a good proportion of the time, because what can he be beating?

Spoiler: I check, villan bets ~£60, I shove ~£220. Villain snap-calls with 55. I still like the line, clearly he had the right type of hand. So I think best move is posting in a BBV thread (but I couldnt find it). At least its not a classic bad beat though, I hope its a little more interesting.

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[stowjon]

if im honest you line after the turn is pretty awful IMO but as said before im no massive cash player,
Villian could easily have pocket 8s or pocket 4s and slow playing that flop

Just my 2c like i said im no big cash player
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[Alex B]

I might be making the mistake of thinking a live £1/£2 players button ranges have widened over the years more than they actually have. Or at might just be FPS that wouldn't even have been good online.

But, what do you think his opening range, 3-bet calling range, c-bet folding ranges are likely to be, that leaves his turn range so tight?

If he can have 44 and 88, what is he doing with all the other pairs? I'm not sure people are just folding to the c-bet these days (but maybe the problem is that they are? It's difficult to quantify a read that the flop call was weak)
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[evelyn]

Check shoving looks like a flush draw (I think a top player might call your precise hand) but you'll still probably get the folds you need to make it profitable as it would take a lot of cojones for villain to call with Ax or a pair.

[Alex B]

[The Dean]

[darrensprengers]

this seems a very convulted and confused hand lines.

it appears to be a very simple large 3-bet oop and a set mine vs a relatively tight player.
the flop seems a standard c-bet and a standard float.
the turn seems even more standard apart from he hits a 5. the check is not to ship but for value as your turned flush draw is irrelevant to line. if you bet the turn or check raise for value it makes not difference. just a bad beat and its only interesting as he bad beat your range rather than your hand
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[evelyn]

darren

Do you think villain would have bet differently if he didn't hit his 5 on the turn ? I think the flush draw is relevant as it increases the equity and makes the shove more profitable.

Alex

You're prob right as I put you on a wider range than you were probably on. Knowing the hands prob skewed my thinking.

[darrensprengers]

are you saying that alex plays it differently if he does not spike a draw?
are you saying that if he does not spike the draw then he bets the turn in a more standard line?

i would assume that if he called the flop as a float then he would bet the turn. in which case alex has to shove bet full range. the turned flush is a nice bonus, for this specific hand, but is already part of the equity calculation for all turns. if this line is to be profitable.

The cards are irrelevant. the discussion is really a bet sizing question of the 3 bet. frequency of the button call. c-bet frequency, c-bet call or raise frequency. float frequency. i would think villians range is heavily weighted towards 22+ and big aces if he thinks alex is competent which he should if he is planning the fps 3bet call float etc.

the bottom line is i think alex puts too much of his own analysis of his own play and assumes the other guy knows what he assumes about his own play. personally i think the 55 is a standard value call to re-evaluate on the turn. the bet kinda proves this as his hand is now so strong and alex's hand range relatively diverse as he has mandatory c-bet and been flated. i think he checks back the turn with so much of his range. what part of your 3-bet range are you folding to a float? how could he have your frequencies so accurate that he knows how often you c-bet/check turn to make a random float bet vs a 3-bet pot profitable?

Personally i dont think he can and i think he can but alex was at the table so has a far better idea than me of how the guy was playing.
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The next best thing to gambling and winning is gambling and losing.

-- Nick "The Greek" Dandalos

[Alex B]

I probably don't bluff there without picking up a draw, its worth a huge discount on the bluff price - if the final pot is 600 its worth ~120 equity when called, which means I am bluffing with 100 to win 200 instead of 220 to win 200. This is a huge difference to me.

I don't think I am assuming as much analysis from villain as you describe. I felt like he was calling the c-bet weak, and we know a lot of people (who play competitively online) do that these days.

We could argue that if he is doing that then he thinks my 3bet range is wider than I assumed, which makes sense if he is rational, but I am not quite making that leap.

It is an interesting point that if most of our assumptions are true then this is good with a much more than the flush draw, but I like the margin for error that is allowed by giving up with the hands with no equity.

I don't think we need to be balanced here, because no-one could ever observe balance on this line on this flop in a live environment, but just in case, giving up sometimes would help the image if villain turned out to be Phil Galfond in disguise.

How do we think people normally play A9s here? Do they but the turn, if they do, do they fold to the shove, or do they check back and give the free card. Is anyone ever folding AQ to the shove having bet it?
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[Alex B]

[evelyn]

[knifeboy62]

[darrensprengers]

[knifeboy62]