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PLO: set and a flush draw vs made straight
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jellyface
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 11:44 am
Post subject: PLO: set and a flush draw vs made straight
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I have won a couple of big pots (well, at 50PL) with this kind of situation recently. One example (roughly right)

Holding 8 Hearts 8 Clubs 7 Clubs K Hearts
Opponent TQKA (no suits)
Board 8 Diamonds 9 Hearts J Hearts

i.e. I flop bottom set with a flush draw, opponent has nut straight with straight redraws.
Poker Calc says that I am favourite on flop (65:35) and small dog on a blank turn (45:55)
I called 2/3 pot bets on flop and turn and in both instances rivered a win and got paid off.

Question 1: Should I really just be jamming this on the flop? If the opponent has a higher set or a better flush draw I am in trouble, right?

Question 2: Is a passive calling station approach justified when you know that the opponent is unlikely to fold (in the above instance he did actually have redraws - in the 2nd he just had the bare nut straight) and when you reckon to be paid off even if you do hit.
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Grumbledook
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 12:49 pm
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I don't play a lot of PLO but:

if you have positive equity then its never going to be wrong to get the money in (from an ev perspective)

it will maximise the amount you can win (or lose as this increases variance) but it will prevent a better opponent throwing away a hand they would have got all in with at this spot but who folds when you make your hand

there will also be times by calling that you miss on both the turn and river, though shoving on the flop might have won you the pot at that point, there is a big difference in profit from this pov

also if you raise him it might have the effect of making people gun shy against you which makes life easier

if you know he isn't folding and will pay you off anyway then sure calling works, though how many players realistically would do this?
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hackett
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 10:23 pm
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Pretty much what Grumble stated.

I am jamming that flop all day every day - You are +EV getting it in here and for all the times it doesn't get called the amount of two pair hands with no redraw that will fold out on the flop make it a profitable move.
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jellyface
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 20, 2011 9:15 pm
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God I am a wuss...voice in my head just said "what if he has a better draw?"
I do need to start growing some I guess.
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