obviously you are worried he made a higher boat here
most probably with 66 as would he likely stick around with 2 pair here? 76xx 7Txx might be in his range 75xx less likely as you have 55xx
he may also have had a high pair making two pair on the river, the fact you didn't bet the flop makes him think you don't have a straight or perhaps a set yourself
there are also two missed flushed draws by the river and he could be making this play with AAsx KKsx QQsx thinking he is ahead, though perhaps not if he is worried you have a 7
that would lead me to think that he proabably has a 7 in his hand but you never know
Pretty sure it's a fold as your hand is almost never good here, there's a chance I'd talk myself into calling though. Villain probably has TT or maybe something like 789T imo.
Why not lead out on the flop btw? It's a lovely flop and you're never in terrible shape against anything but if you give him a free card the turn could give him a straight, kill your action if it's a heart (no chance he has 2nd nut flush) and if the board pairs you're unlikely to get much action unless he has you crushed.
Joined: 12 Sep 2006 Posts: 3216 Location: Being financially raped by low life scum who are desperate for a few hundred - Have a guess who?????
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 9:11 pm Post subject:
I don't mind the check on the flop, if it gets bet i assume you are looking to CR and take it down there.
If you are betting the turn then pot it, double suited flush draw and you are pissing about with 3/4 bets, hmmmmm. Edit, you had the nut draw one way. Even so make that DS K's or Q's pay premium.
River needs to be all about pot control. He has stuck around this long, you have to think at least at 6 max he had the minimum of 2 pair and boated up. Check call for me.
taking this hand in isolation you cannot call. You have to have knowledge of the opponent to know he is either rubbish enough to raise the river with a set or over pair or good enough to know what you had and raise with a representative bluff.
In absence of this information you will rarely be good here and will be highly unlikely to show a profit on the call. _________________ The next best thing to gambling and winning is gambling and losing.
Joined: 08 Aug 2007 Posts: 3236 Location: Leicester
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 1:13 pm Post subject:
I think his raise on the river is very unlikely to be a hand worse than yours raising for value - if he has an overpair or a 7 but no boat, or a st8, he is just calling, unless....he flopped the st8 and thinks he has under repped it and is now desperate to get paid even tho the board has paired (dunno abouot this, but I have seen it happen often enough). So it's a bluff (he thinks it's a re-bluff?) or boat bigger than yours. Given you have no reads I think it is a fold.
I think it's a fold too, it's either a bluff raise (if so well played) or a hand that beats you, unless of course he's a moron which is always possible but not something you can just assume without some evidence.
I was multi tabling and kind of flabergasted by his raise. Surely he would bet a set on the flop, two pair, combo draws etc. After he raised the river he is representing a very narrow range and given I'm a omahaha noob and multi tabling I folded. But imo when people are representing such a narrow range (after checking this flop the only hand he is representing that is ahead of mine is TT) a call is in order.
He called the turn with a flush draw and showed his bluff on the river. I stacked him soon after though so all is good.
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