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Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 7:43 pm
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In danger of being one of those days but I've had 5 points on Malaga -0.75AH v Osasuna @ 1.847.

Malaga are very strong at home and although Osasuna rarely get stuffed I fancy this to be a straightforward home win.
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:10 am
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I really like a game in Finland today.

Lathi v IFK

Lahti and IFK are the 2 in form sides in the league as they fight for the remaining European spot with VPS. Both are scoring and conceding lots of goals which gives a real opportunity today. Looking at the 2 sides I really like Lahti to win especially as they are at home and IFK tend to be average away from their island base. Lahti have a fantastic attack which is bang in form so I've done -

Lahti to win - 5 points @ 1.943 (Pinnacle)
Over 2.75 goals - 5 points @ 1.83 (SBOBET)
Over 3 goals - 5 points @ 2.06 (Pinnacle)
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 1:10 pm
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Brodders wrote:
I really like a game in Finland today.

Lathi v IFK

Lahti and IFK are the 2 in form sides in the league as they fight for the remaining European spot with VPS. Both are scoring and conceding lots of goals which gives a real opportunity today. Looking at the 2 sides I really like Lahti to win especially as they are at home and IFK tend to be average away from their island base. Lahti have a fantastic attack which is bang in form so I've done -

Lahti to win - 5 points @ 1.943 (Pinnacle)
Over 2.75 goals - 5 points @ 1.83 (SBOBET)
Over 3 goals - 5 points @ 2.06 (Pinnacle)


Lahti are 3-0 up at half time against 10 men. I'm going to be really pissed off if this messes up !

I've had another bet today in Israel -

Shmoma to beat Sakhnin - 4 points @ 1.99 (SBOBET)

Shmoma are one of the better sides in Israel and are very strong at home. Sakhnin have started the season well but shouldn't be good enough to get anything from the game today. This should be an easy home win and evens is massive
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 1:56 pm
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4-0 Lahti Very Happy

I'm going to have one more play today...

Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad

I want to back over 2.5 goals as Rayo cannot defend but Sociedad are struggling at the moment with all the games they are having to play. This is a game that Rayo could win but I think both teams will score at least once. The vast majority of Rayo's home games go over 2.5 goals so I do fancy this to follow suit. Best odds are currently around 4/5 but i plan to back it after around 5-10 minutes to get a better price. Fingers crossed on no early goals !!!
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 4:10 pm
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Brodders wrote:
4-0 Lahti Very Happy

I'm going to have one more play today...

Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad

I want to back over 2.5 goals as Rayo cannot defend but Sociedad are struggling at the moment with all the games they are having to play. This is a game that Rayo could win but I think both teams will score at least once. The vast majority of Rayo's home games go over 2.5 goals so I do fancy this to follow suit. Best odds are currently around 4/5 but i plan to back it after around 5-10 minutes to get a better price. Fingers crossed on no early goals !!!


Ok I've had 4 points on over 2.5 @ Evens
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:58 am
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I think I actually sneaked over 10k yesterday after the Lahti game but spoiled it when Shmona couldn't beat 10 men in the 2nd half of their game.

I like 2 bets a lot today so far -

VPS to beat MyPA with draw no bet - 8 points @ 11/10 (Bet365)

VPS are fighting with Lahti and IFK for the last remaining European spot. They have been in really good form recently and play a MyPA side with nothing to play for. They have lost their last 3 matches and I love games at this time of year when one of the sides has everything to play for and the other has basically given up on the season. I was tempted by the straight away win but getting 11/10 with DNB is an absolute gift IMO

Parma v Sassuolo over 3 goals - 5 points @ 147/100 (Pinnacle)

I've watched Sassuolo's last 2 games and they cost me money in both by being aggressive with their attacking play. They've worked out that they have a terrible defence and they are still relying on a great deal of luck not to concede bundles but they attack with great verve and speed. They play a Parma side that is scoring lots of goals but also conceding which makes this very interesting. Parma could clear 3 goals on their own but I fancy Sassuolo to nick one at least. I was tempted by Parma -1AH @ just over evens but getting nearly 6/4 on over 3 goals is enormous.
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Sun Oct 06, 2013 1:00 pm
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Italy has been good to me so far so I've had another bet there -

Catania to beat Genoa - 5 points @ 2.04 (SBOBET)

Catania are a really strong home side playing a Genoa team that can't seem to score. This should be a home win all day long
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Sun Oct 06, 2013 1:38 pm
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Finally I'm having 2 bets in Portugal.

Benfica II v Academica over 2.5 goals - 5 points @ 2.09 (Pinnacle)

I love this. The bookies just don't understand how this Benfica side play. Although Academica haven't been involved in an overs away game this year, they haven't played a kamikaze side who are great going forwards but can't defend. I think Academica are going to love playing a good side on a great surface and this game will go over (like every home game so far this season for Benfica II) and odds against again is wonderful.

Estoril v Benfica over 2.5 goals - 5 points @ 1.94 (SBOBET)

As above Benfica are mental and love attacking whilst being very poor at the back. Estoril are attacking everyone this year without fear and this has to go over 2.5 goals IMO.
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:49 am
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After a very nice Sunday, I've hit the target with a total of 10,475.22 with an ROI of 7.89%

Took longer than I would have hoped but always nice to reach your goal Very Happy Being greedy, it could have been nearly 2k better as well if Catania and VPS hadn't conceded late goals Crying or Very sad but that's the game.

Over the 2 spin up threads, I've made a profit on the football bets of 11,974.14 (I made some money in the first spin up on the horses and cricket but kept the 2nd Spin Up to football alone) with an ROI of 11.95%

Hopefully, anyone following this made some money as well Mr. Green
peterH
Porn Baron


Joined: 04 Apr 2006
Posts: 3007

PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:18 am
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Brodders wrote:


Hopefully, anyone following this made some money as well Mr. Green


Yep, made a few quid following some, not all of the tips, and staking much, much less than you did!

It's been fun. Speaking selfishly, and on behalf of the other followers, I hope you'll keep tossing a few tips our way! Very Happy
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Brodders
Quads


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Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:55 am
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peterH wrote:
Brodders wrote:


Hopefully, anyone following this made some money as well Mr. Green


Yep, made a few quid following some, not all of the tips, and staking much, much less than you did!

It's been fun. Speaking selfishly, and on behalf of the other followers, I hope you'll keep tossing a few tips our way! Very Happy


Thanks Peter - I'll definitely keep punting and see what I can do (see below)

I've got a game that I like today in Portugal

Trofense v Sporting Braga II

Trofense are at the bottom of the table and can't seem to get a win for love nor money. Going back to last year, they've not won for 14 league games but their last win was actually in this corresponding fixture last year (3-0).

Trofense's style of play seems to have shifted in the last couple of games. They started the season playing very defensively and trying to gain points by not conceding but all they managed to do was nick a few home draws. Their last 2 games have seen a marked change with them becoming far more attacking. They've worked out that if they have any chance whatsoever of staying up, they will only get wins by playing in this style. They lost 3-4 at home to Portimonense (who currently lie 2nd in the table) having been 3 down in 33 minutes and then lost 4-1 in their derby with Aves, although this doesn't tell the whole tale with them having a goal disallowed at 1-0 and then having a man sent off when they'd just pulled it back to 2-1.

I don't think that they're going to be good enough to stay up to be honest whichever style of play they adopt but at least attacking will give their fans a little bit to cheer rather than drawing their way down.

Braga II are a pretty poor side if truth be told too. The 1st team tend to call up anyone playing half well really quickly but they can be dragged into an open game although this tends to be when they're at home.

I'm banking on Trofense making the running here and attacking Braga because if they revert to a defensive game this will end up 0-0 or something similar. However, based on their last 2 games it seems reasonable to expect Trofense to go for it and in an open game, even Braga will be able to score against them.

General price on over 2.5 goals is 13/10 but I've had 4 points with Pinnacle @ 2.35.


Last edited by Brodders on Mon Oct 07, 2013 2:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
Grumbledook
Royal Flush


Joined: 25 Dec 2003
Posts: 16061

PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 1:46 pm
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wp brodders!
Bogus
At Won with No 28


Joined: 01 May 2008
Posts: 5245
Location: Hendon (Deception Central)

PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 3:09 pm
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peterH wrote:
Brodders wrote:


Hopefully, anyone following this made some money as well Mr. Green


Yep, made a few quid following some, not all of the tips, and staking much, much less than you did!

It's been fun. Speaking selfishly, and on behalf of the other followers, I hope you'll keep tossing a few tips our way! Very Happy


+1. Thanks
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penko910
Full House


Joined: 27 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 5:47 pm
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WP brodders, great achievement Smile
Nem
Royal Flush


Joined: 26 Apr 2005
Posts: 17557

PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 6:06 pm
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Ty sir

Start another asap
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