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darrensprengers
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 10:24 am
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Alex B wrote:
If he calls with any 4 or better*, and we are optimistic about his limping range, our equity when called might be up to 20%. That means we're risking at least 2700 to win 1450.

That means that Black has to fold at least 65% of his flop bet-3betting hands in order for this to break even.

I doubt there are many players who put 1/4 of their stack into a limped pot planning to fold to a shove 2/3+ of the time, although I don't have any info on Black.

My conclusion - fold equity is less than 1450 and I think its less than 700 we're aiming at (he folds less than 50%). We're risking at least 2700 and it could be more like 3200 (if we have as little as 15% equity when called). Black would have to limp-bet-bluff3bet a huge amount of flops for this to be good, so I don't think its profitable.

(*This is to err on the side of optimism about our equity, NOT what I think his calling range, and therefore frequency, really is)


If you know Andy well enough to know he only 3 bets there with a hand he calls over 50% then you are right. Andy can be ultra aggressive. Look at the K2 vs A2 hand vs Phil ivey when there was a 5 bet and a shove.

I think the difficulty here is that he is calling a shove as opposed to shoving.

With the blinds at 25-50 it is not inconceivable he could fold with that being a 3 bet move or even folding a small pair or top pair. Against ram this seems more unlikely but he has limped on the button and is a player that will play poker. Ram is aware of this hence his shove.

If you know that andy never 3 bets without the goods, he will be good enough to know you know, and 3 bet anyway. Then its levelling time. If you say he is calling the allin more than 65% there then its say 70-80%. If andy knows you are using this figure you have become very exploitable. Even if he calls the flop you can bet the turn and have total pot control. Obviously the turn has to brick.
fraac
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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It's never "levelling time" - you lose money as soon as you think that way. I tried to get this Sklanskian myth removed from parlance a while ago but readers aren't thinkers, or something. I'll post some articles here when I've won bigger events.
darrensprengers
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 2:26 pm
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fraac wrote:
It's never "levelling time" - you lose money as soon as you think that way. I tried to get this Sklanskian myth removed from parlance a while ago but readers aren't thinkers, or something. I'll post some articles here when I've won bigger events.


enlighten us to the smaller events you have won.
fraac
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 2:42 pm
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None large enough to get through to you sheeple, obviously.

Here's a quick clue on the topology of gamespaces, re: "If you say he is calling the allin more than 65% there then its say 70-80%. If andy knows you are using this figure you have become very exploitable."

65% includes Andy knowing you're using that figure. There is no levelling, only an average. Mindfcuk, eh?
Alex B
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:25 pm
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darrensprengers wrote:
If you know that andy never 3 bets without the goods, he will be good enough to know you know, and 3 bet anyway. Then its levelling time. If you say he is calling the allin more than 65% there then its say 70-80%. If andy knows you are using this figure you have become very exploitable. Even if he calls the flop you can bet the turn and have total pot control. Obviously the turn has to brick.


I picture this read out by Phil Laak. Smile

So do you think that a good player who knows we know he knows will have a hand more or less than 65% of the time here?

Or from another angle, is it reasonable for Black to think Ram is 3-bet-passing (900/900+550) 62% of the time here? Because at least if that can be true its reasonable to think that Black COULD have figured that all out and be choosing to bluff really often.

I've no idea if Ram often re-raises out of position with a hand he can't continue, ( or if Black knows that, or if Ram is 65% sure Black knows he knows that at least 70% of the time. Smile )
darrensprengers
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 4:57 pm
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Alex B wrote:
darrensprengers wrote:
If you know that andy never 3 bets without the goods, he will be good enough to know you know, and 3 bet anyway. Then its levelling time. If you say he is calling the allin more than 65% there then its say 70-80%. If andy knows you are using this figure you have become very exploitable. Even if he calls the flop you can bet the turn and have total pot control. Obviously the turn has to brick.


I picture this read out by Phil Laak. Smile

So do you think that a good player who knows we know he knows will have a hand more or less than 65% of the time here?

Or from another angle, is it reasonable for Black to think Ram is 3-bet-passing (900/900+550) 62% of the time here? Because at least if that can be true its reasonable to think that Black COULD have figured that all out and be choosing to bluff really often.

I've no idea if Ram often re-raises out of position with a hand he can't continue, ( or if Black knows that, or if Ram is 65% sure Black knows he knows that at least 70% of the time. Smile )


Not sure about the phil laak reference. Rambling at a guess. probably true.

I was merely stating i have seen this move in gukpts, epts, wsops. By "live pros" and the internet guys. I even did it myself a couple of times at the world series this year against a serial c-better that had to fold showing me top pair on one in a huff. I even did this to robert a few times in the syndicate match.

When its a couple of grand to get into the event and the blinds are low you can exhort all sorts of pressure on the people that have won entry, first tourny, running bad, etc. I know i have felt this pressure from good players against me.

I believe, which probably makes it wrong, that this is when the best poker is played. When the blinds are big and all your decisions are made for you and the maths really determines your actions far more if not almost totally on some hands.

If you believe that andy cant have a hand he 3 bets there in an unraised pot that he cant fold more than 1 in 2 then fine. I would be more concerned if i thought andy would call my all in with Ace highs.
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