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peterH
Porn Baron


Joined: 04 Apr 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 12:35 pm
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paddymick wrote:
Good write up, good run.

Question on the Zenit game: Bet365 is offering me 2.075 on 'Asian Handicap -1.5, -2'
I can't just take a -1.5.

The fact they listed both has confused me. I presume it's just the -2?


Half your bet will go on -1.5, the other half will go on -2.

Scroll down to 'alternative asian handicap' and select the -1.5 from there.
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paddymick
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 12:39 pm
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Thanks peter
although the half and half bet is tempting, if they are both on at 2.075
Brodders
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Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 4:50 pm
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Brodders wrote:
After a nice run, the running total is now 7,444.64

I like 2 bets today, one a lot and the other a bit speculatively -

Zenit -1.5AH v Austria Vienna - 10 points @ 1.78 (SBOBET)

Zenit did me a big favour at the weekend with their massive 4-2 win over Spartak. The manner of the win was very important with them being pegged back from 1-0 and then 2-1 to then score 2 goals in the last 10 minutes to win 4-2. This shows 2 very important facts about this Zenit side - they are extremely strong at home and have fantastic attacking power with the likes of Danny and Hulk pulling the strings.

They are up against an Austria Vienna side that's out of their depth in terms of both quality and tactically. They will do ok at home but their recent game against an average Porto side demonstrated this as they were undone by Porto tactically despite dominating a lot of the play. Away from home, I think we'll see them get a good stuffing. I was half tempted to go for -2AH but getting 4/5 (or near as dammit) on -1.5AH is an extremely strong proposition.

I should also mention that with Atletico Madrid and Porto in this group both winning their first games, it's going to be seen as very important to pick up 6 points in the games against Austria Vienna. Zenit are smart enough to know that Atletico are the best side in the group and will target these games along with the 2 games against Porto as being the most important for qualification.

Atletico Madrid to beat Porto - 4 points @ 17/10 (Paddy Power)

This is a bit more speculative but I made reference above to how average this Porto side look. Since losing the heart of their team in pre-season they are really struggling (by their standards) to perform. I've watched them against Vienna and last time against Guimaraes (when they cost me money !) and they were quite poor at times. They are still dominant in Portugal but this is more down to the lack of strength in depth in the division than their quality. Against Guimaraes, after scoring their goal (from a dodgy penalty) they were very clearly second best as Guimaraes pushed forward and were a little lucky to hang on in the end.

They are up against an Atletico side that are absolutely flying at the moment. Simone has got claims to be one of the best managers in the world imo as he has moulded this side into an absolute machine. They are incredibly strong tactically and are one of the most motivated sides around with the entire team working so hard for each other. They are unbeaten in all competitions this year and have won every game apart from against Barcelona. They come into this game off the back of their 1-0 win against Real at the weekend and they couldn't be any higher in moral terms.

Porto have always been very strong at home, which is why this is a bit speculative, but I really fancy Atletico to do a job on them and win this game. You can get DNB at around 4/5 but the away win outright at 17/10 is far far too big and worth taking imo


Just a terrible decision from the ref. He's sent off a Zenit player for absolutely nothing. Hopefully he'll even it up in the 2nd half with a dodgy penalty but this isn't looking good...
Brodders
Quads


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 8:40 pm
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What a wonderful goal from Atletico !!!

At half time, I had 4 points @ 13/8 on Atletico/Draw and 1 point @ 11/1 on Atletico to win Mr. Green

New running total - 8,874.64 with an ROI of 6.40%
Brodders
Quads


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 8:33 am
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I've had a go at one game so far today -

Desportivo Aves -0.5AH v Trofense - 4.4 points @ 10/11 (Pinnacle) and -1AH - 3.6 points @ 2.72 (Pinnacle)

This is a derby so there can be unpredictability but I think the bookies have underestimated how poor Trofense are this year and that Aves are in a very good run of form. Aves have won their last 2 games, including a good win at Sporting II and the game before that they battered Benfica II and somehow didn't score in a 0-0 draw (which I watched as was on overs !)

Trofense have lost every away game so far this season and are already looking clueless. They either sit back and lose by a goal or try to attack and leave themselves too open at the back. In today's game, I fancy them to go for it which is why I like the Asian handicaps.

These teams have an interesting history - they tend to win their home games against each other with them both winning 4 and drawing 2 of their last 4 home games. The last 3 times they've played at Aves, the results have been 2-0, 5-1 and 3-1 to Aves which adds fuel to this bet.

I honestly think that 10/11 on the home win is massive and I could see them winning this by 2 or more, especially of Trofense try to attack them.
Brodders
Quads


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Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:03 am
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Ok - I've had another couple of bets in Portugal -

Tondela -0.5AH v Sporting II - 4 points @ 2.62 (Pinnacle) and over 2.5 goals - 4 points @ 2.11 (Pinnacle)

This game hinges somewhat on Tondela not doing anything stupid. I've backed them a couple of times this year when they've had a man sent off in the first 20 minutes but when they keep 11 on the pitch they are an extremely good side with an excellent home record. They are playing a decent Sporting II side who on paper should be a good goalscoring side but the fact remains that they have lost all 4 away games in the league so far without scoring a goal. With Tondela's ability to concede silly goals I do fancy this to go over 2.5 goals but I also fancy them to find a way to win this (I see a 2-1 or 3-1 type scoreline)

10 of Tondela's 12 games in all competitions this year have gone over 2.5 goals which gives an indication of the types of games they tend to get involved with.

Odds against on over 2.5 goals is huge and the home win price is way too big as well imo
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:03 pm
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A great result in Aves has left me with a running total of 9,937.84 !

I'm planning on having a couple of bets tonight in the Champions League. I like PSG to beat Benfica but the price has gone. It was around 4/5 this morning and is now c.7/10

I'm going to wait and see what happens in running. Ideally, Benfica will score first and I would then be all over backing either the straight PSG win or the Double Chance.

The other one I like is goals in the same game. Benfica have an awful defence and have a very cavalier approach to every game. This works fine in Portugal but against this PSG team it can only lead to trouble. I think there's every chance that they'll score but this looks like a 2-1 or 3-1 game to me. I'm trying to decide whether I take the overs before the game at a shade under evens or wait 5 minutes and get odds against in running.

Other interesting bets I'm considering are Shakhtar to win and goals in the Anderlecht game...
Brodders
Quads


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:09 pm
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I've just talked myself into backing Shakhtar to beat Man Utd - 4 points @ 13/8

It's a really hard place to play and Shakhtar are in their usual good form. Going to Sociedad and winning 2-0 shows how good a side they are tactically, and I just think they'll have too much for Man Utd at the moment. They seem to be very dispirited and I'm not convinced that they trust David Moyes. They've obviously got great individual players but I think they'll be out fought and beaten tactically by Shaktar tonight.
Brodders
Quads


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Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:15 pm
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Brodders wrote:
A great result in Aves has left me with a running total of 9,937.84 !

I'm planning on having a couple of bets tonight in the Champions League. I like PSG to beat Benfica but the price has gone. It was around 4/5 this morning and is now c.7/10

I'm going to wait and see what happens in running. Ideally, Benfica will score first and I would then be all over backing either the straight PSG win or the Double Chance.

The other one I like is goals in the same game. Benfica have an awful defence and have a very cavalier approach to every game. This works fine in Portugal but against this PSG team it can only lead to trouble. I think there's every chance that they'll score but this looks like a 2-1 or 3-1 game to me. I'm trying to decide whether I take the overs before the game at a shade under evens or wait 5 minutes and get odds against in running.

Other interesting bets I'm considering are Shakhtar to win and goals in the Anderlecht game...


OK - I've had 4 points on Anderlecht v Olympiakos over 2.5 goals @ 2.06

Neither of these teams can defend but both have potent attacks and I fancy this to have quite a few goals. Odds against is just way too big to ignore
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 6:54 pm
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Brodders wrote:
A great result in Aves has left me with a running total of 9,937.84 !

I'm planning on having a couple of bets tonight in the Champions League. I like PSG to beat Benfica but the price has gone. It was around 4/5 this morning and is now c.7/10

I'm going to wait and see what happens in running. Ideally, Benfica will score first and I would then be all over backing either the straight PSG win or the Double Chance.

The other one I like is goals in the same game. Benfica have an awful defence and have a very cavalier approach to every game. This works fine in Portugal but against this PSG team it can only lead to trouble. I think there's every chance that they'll score but this looks like a 2-1 or 3-1 game to me. I'm trying to decide whether I take the overs before the game at a shade under evens or wait 5 minutes and get odds against in running.

Other interesting bets I'm considering are Shakhtar to win and goals in the Anderlecht game...


Beyond annoying... I had just tried to bet 5 points @ 2.13 on over 2.5 in the PSG game and it got rejected as they scored straight away.
Brodders
Quads


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Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 8:54 pm
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Another what could have been... Stupid soft goal Shakhtar gave to Utd but such is life !

New running total - 9,961.84 with an ROI of 7.88%

Looking at my spreadsheet over the 2 spin ups, I've made a profit of 11,460.70 with an ROI of 12.22%

Hopefully we get over the line tomorrow... a couple of Europa games that I'm looking at Wink
TheBlueBoy
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Joined: 11 Oct 2009
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:56 am
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Brodders wrote:
Another what could have been... Stupid soft goal Shakhtar gave to Utd but such is life !

New running total - 9,961.84 with an ROI of 7.88%

Looking at my spreadsheet over the 2 spin ups, I've made a profit of 11,460.70 with an ROI of 12.22%

Hopefully we get over the line tomorrow... a couple of Europa games that I'm looking at Wink


Few 1/2pt bets? To sneak over and start again? Not your style is it?
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Yes, it was 4-0, you obviously saw the game in the pub and think all your players are 3 inches tall. Next question.
Brodders
Quads


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Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 10:12 am
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TheBlueBoy wrote:
Brodders wrote:
Another what could have been... Stupid soft goal Shakhtar gave to Utd but such is life !

New running total - 9,961.84 with an ROI of 7.88%

Looking at my spreadsheet over the 2 spin ups, I've made a profit of 11,460.70 with an ROI of 12.22%

Hopefully we get over the line tomorrow... a couple of Europa games that I'm looking at Wink


Few 1/2pt bets? To sneak over and start again? Not your style is it?


Not really ! Mr. Green

I've had one bet today in the Europa League -

Swansea v St Gallen over 3 goals (asian) 4 points @ 2.29 (Pinnacle)

Swansea have looked fantastic in this competition so far with their new signings very much at home against European opposition. They attack with pace and are very string tactically which is making them a real force in this competition. They have played 2 games at home so far scoring 4 and 5 goals in each. They play a St Gallen side that is very good on the counter attack and who have got this far by being a good goalscoring side. They had a very interesting match against Spartak Moscow earlier in the competition beating them 2-4 in Russia.

I fully expect this game to have plenty of goals. It's possible that Swansea will outclass St Gallen but Swiss football is getting better and better (ask Chelsea !) and I fancy St Gallen to score tonight.

Either way, getting 2.29 on over 3 goals is way too big imo
Brodders
Quads


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 8:18 am
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What a damp squib last night was ! Might have been different if St Gallen had scored their penalty in the first half but onwards and upwards !

I like a game in Hungary today and have had various bets. The sizing has been dictated by the bookie if you wonder about the odd numbers as Hungary is not a very liquid market !

Debreceni v Paksi

Debreceni are arguably the best side in Hungary and are awesome at home. to put this into context, in their last 27 home games (going back to the start of the 2012 season) they have won 21, drawn 2 and lost 4. They beat a decent MTK side last time 1-0 with 10 men and before that smashed a good side Ferencvaros 4-1. The side they play today, Paksi have one style of play which is to attack and try to outscore their opponents which works ok against most sides but when they play the better sides they tend to come unstuck. They have lost their last 3 away games 4-1, 2-0 and 2-0. The 4-1 was against the current league leaders (Videoton) which shows the type of game they end up playing against the larger sides.

If they attack Debreceni today, I could see a similar scoreline to the Videoton game but I fancy (strongly) 2 outcomes. Debreceni to win this by 2 goals or more and for there to be at least 3 goals and probably more in total. I've therefore had -

over 2.75 goals - 2.2 points @ 1.87 (SBOBET)
over 3 goals - 2.2 points @ 2.12 (Pinnacle)
Debreceni -1.25AH - 3.0302 points @ 1.825 (Bet365)
Debreceni - 1.5AH - 2.3810 points @ 2.05 (Bet365)
Brodders
Quads


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Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 12:21 pm
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Brodders wrote:
What a damp squib last night was ! Might have been different if St Gallen had scored their penalty in the first half but onwards and upwards !

I like a game in Hungary today and have had various bets. The sizing has been dictated by the bookie if you wonder about the odd numbers as Hungary is not a very liquid market !

Debreceni v Paksi

Debreceni are arguably the best side in Hungary and are awesome at home. to put this into context, in their last 27 home games (going back to the start of the 2012 season) they have won 21, drawn 2 and lost 4. They beat a decent MTK side last time 1-0 with 10 men and before that smashed a good side Ferencvaros 4-1. The side they play today, Paksi have one style of play which is to attack and try to outscore their opponents which works ok against most sides but when they play the better sides they tend to come unstuck. They have lost their last 3 away games 4-1, 2-0 and 2-0. The 4-1 was against the current league leaders (Videoton) which shows the type of game they end up playing against the larger sides.

If they attack Debreceni today, I could see a similar scoreline to the Videoton game but I fancy (strongly) 2 outcomes. Debreceni to win this by 2 goals or more and for there to be at least 3 goals and probably more in total. I've therefore had -

over 2.75 goals - 2.2 points @ 1.87 (SBOBET)
over 3 goals - 2.2 points @ 2.12 (Pinnacle)
Debreceni -1.25AH - 3.0302 points @ 1.825 (Bet365)
Debreceni - 1.5AH - 2.3810 points @ 2.05 (Bet365)


I've had a further 3 points on -1.25AH @ 1.847 (Pinnacle)
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