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Barny
Mobster


Joined: 18 Sep 2003
Posts: 1136

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 8:30 am
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There was a storm in a teacup stirred up on Twitter over the way Kevin MacPhee, in the heat of the moment, expressed his view that my call to knock him out of the EPT San Remo was a bad one. (For those who dont know, Kevin shoved nines bigs from the small blind with 5 6 off and I called him from the bb with Q 7 suited.)

The words chosen to express that view are long since forgotten but what remains is the legitimate opinion of Kevin and others that my decision was wrong. In the cold light of day I absolutely stand by my play and I do so for all the reasons I made it at the time.

Firstly, a lot has been made of the fact that Kevin had folded thirty plus hands prior to his shove as though this somehow made it more likely that he held a strong hand. If anything, the opposite is the case - for two reasons. One: Players tend to believe they gain more credibility when the enter a pot the tighter they are playing. While this is true for a player making an unforced play with a playable stack it simply doesn't apply to a shortstack shove from a player opening the action from the small blind. Indeed the feeling by that player that they deserve more credit may in fact widen the range they are prepared to shove with. Two: Frustration. A player who is low in chips and has obviously been card dead for some time is psychologically more likely to make a reckless play. Although Kevin was visibly feeling that frustration neither of these factors had a real bearing on my decision. Quite simply, his play was correct with any two cards and I gave him the credit as the good player I know him to be, that he would make the right play.
In the end, the idea that he would be more likely to have a strong hand because the last thirty odd had been weak would be the same kind of flawed thinking that prompts roulette players to press up on red when the ball has dropped in back ten times in a row. Its just a red herring.

So, Kevin is shoving with any two. In the absence of any other information is it a call? Smarter mathematicians than me can probably provide an exact answer but my instinct was, and is, that its a marginal and certainly not a controversial decision. Q7 is a less that average hand but (although Im happy to be corrected) with the dead money I suspect now as i did then that it is just about correct in chip terms.
Is it correct in ICM and metagame terms? Well, as a relative shortstack who nonetheless had Kevin comfortably covered and still would do if i lost the pot I see the chance to instantly move up the prize ladder as a plus. Again, I am willing to be corrected by any of the countless wizz-kids out there who may have a stronger grasp of ICM considerations than I do.
In metagame terms, well. the message was loud and clear and I verbalised it after the hand for anyone that may have missed it: Dont be shoving a sub ten bb stack on my big blind and expecting me to roll over for you!

So, what made it an easy and straightforward call for me? As I said in my interview on the break right after the hand, Kevin (who was sitting right next to me obviously) gave me a very clear and reliable tell that his hand was not a strong one. The tell was not only reliable because it was consistent with what he had been giving off all day and because it would have been very hard to fake. It was also reliable because there would almost never be a good reason to fake it. There are not many hand with which he wants to induce a call.

So, I am pretty much ruling out any ace or pair (certainly any pair above my seven) and I would be surprised to see a hand like KQ as well. To me about the worse news Im likely to get is K 7. Ill take my chances. I believed that Q7 was above average against his likely range and that the call was a no brainer. In fact, asking for a chip count when I already knew more or less how much he was playing almost amounted to a nit roll. I was always calling. And I always would. And you can consider this article a career level matagame play.
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If it wasn't for luck I'd lose every tournament I played...If I wanted to manage a bankroll I'd be a bank manager.
ryanpb
Full House


Joined: 11 Oct 2005
Posts: 1500

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 9:06 am
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From what I know (which isn't much) In a full ring game Q7 as it is dealt is an exactly average hand.

I agree that you are likely to be favourite, this sort of move from the small blind is becoming more and more popular and so therefore it is becoming more exploitable - much like the early days of 3 betting light.

A lot of people would say if your going to make this move in the first place you should push all your chips in, well for me as the whole effective stack size thing comes into play, there is nobody to protect his hand from so there is no point.

I have thought about the ICM and it is clear that Barny was in this spot as well, he was looking to knock him out with an average hand, gain his equity and jump in prize money, if that was Barny's goal then that was the correct play, I feel though if Barny was looking at taking down the whole thing then it is debatable, essentially though this play is more popular in live tournys I see it all the time.

I made a similar move with a suited King one time and busted two short stacks - very positive ICM although would according to game theory today be wrong, I think we have to differentiate between online and live plays in this spot and the new school can't seem to get their heads around it.
MattF
Straight


Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Posts: 459

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 9:37 am
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I'd spite-call him for being Liv's boyfriend in any case
Getaria
Two Pair


Joined: 06 Oct 2005
Posts: 87
Location: Madrid

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 10:09 am
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Barny's play is correct.
Agree Kevin is shoving any two.
Wonder what would have he done holding aces.
Great tourney Barny.
Congrats.
CarpeAnnum
Flush


Joined: 09 Oct 2005
Posts: 617

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 10:49 am
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I call with the Q7 but that is not the point. It's not whether it's right or wrong that is the issue. For me it is the classless and disrespectful way McPhee talks about it calling Barny a **** retard. I know he has apologised but not before he tried to stick up for himself on 2+2 first and his apology for me isn't a genuine one.

What's funnier is that he tweeted from France in April saying he was never playing there again as it is full of douchbags and that he had never seen so many douchebags in one place. Well where ever he is there is always one more.

WP Barny!
madride
Straight Flush


Joined: 29 Jan 2006
Posts: 2990
Location: Glasgow

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 10:58 am
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CarpeAnnum wrote:
I know he has apologised but not before he tried to stick up for himself on 2+2 first and his apology for me isn't a genuine one.


You have a link to what he said on 2+2?
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stowjon
Royal Flush


Joined: 26 Oct 2008
Posts: 9071

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 11:08 am
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madride wrote:
CarpeAnnum wrote:
I know he has apologised but not before he tried to stick up for himself on 2+2 first and his apology for me isn't a genuine one.


You have a link to what he said on 2+2?


post link
Al Force
Straight


Joined: 20 Aug 2008
Posts: 285
Location: Norwich

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 11:12 am
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Yeah, Q7 is very much an average hand, the computer hand in fact, if I'm not mistaken, and sometimes I'll call in this spot too. It all depends on the table dynamic and laddering considerations.

I always say a player's entitled to play his hand any way he likes and if you disagree with his action, you should just be grateful for the perceived edge he's giving you.

Kevin seems like a good bloke usually and maybe will use Twitter a bit more judiciously in future. Is this a technological update on drinking and dialling - busting out and Tweeting? Very Happy
the_benj
Straight


Joined: 17 Jan 2010
Posts: 341
Location: Walsall

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 11:37 am
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A call with any face card is fine compared to his potential range. If MacPhee had won the hand he'd have called it a genius play.

Nothing worse than a sore loser (except maybe a bad winner)
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whammer
Full House


Joined: 01 Aug 2007
Posts: 1238
Location: ESSEX

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 1:24 pm
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nobody knows the dynamics of the table like the players playing so fair play barny and very nice score sir

good to see a nice guy cashing

that said, i would not have called that (rightly or wrongly)
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CarpeAnnum
Flush


Joined: 09 Oct 2005
Posts: 617

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 1:29 pm
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stowjon wrote:
madride wrote:
CarpeAnnum wrote:
I know he has apologised but not before he tried to stick up for himself on 2+2 first and his apology for me isn't a genuine one.


You have a link to what he said on 2+2?


post link


http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/...al-table-1118474/
paddymick
Straight Flush


Joined: 08 Aug 2007
Posts: 3455
Location: Leicester

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 1:41 pm
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Yep if Q7 is the average hand as said then with the dead money it's a call, assuming he's shoving any two, and with the situation and your read it seems this was the case.
The majority of players would just say good call gg wp and it wouldn't even be an issue.
madride
Straight Flush


Joined: 29 Jan 2006
Posts: 2990
Location: Glasgow

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 2:13 pm
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CarpeAnnum wrote:
stowjon wrote:
madride wrote:
CarpeAnnum wrote:
I know he has apologised but not before he tried to stick up for himself on 2+2 first and his apology for me isn't a genuine one.


You have a link to what he said on 2+2?


post link


http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/...al-table-1118474/


Cheers mate
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Indestructible
Royal Flush


Joined: 21 May 2005
Posts: 15760
Location: Final Table

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 2:56 pm
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Barny is too polite.
oneshotbob
Full House


Joined: 06 Aug 2010
Posts: 1305
Location: York, United Kingdom

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 3:04 pm
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This justification is not necessary. You'd been there for 5 days, outlasted thousands of players and most importantly, won the hand.

He's shoving with 5 6 off, and has let himself get down to nine big blinds. Do the maths.
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