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Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 7:33 am
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Brodders wrote:
Results from yesterday -

BATE lost 0-1. No excuses for them... just not good enough.

Kalju v HJK 2-1. Over 2.5 bets came in and unlucky to not have more goals. Over 4.5 goals was unlucky as if HJK had scored again (as they should from the balance of play) they would have gone through on Away goals meaning a good chance of further goals as Kalju chased it.

New running total - 7,713.10

Today, I've had 1 bet so far -

Maribor -2AH v Birkirkara 300 @ 2.06 (3)

Maribor are an excellent side with a great European pedigree who should make mincemeat of Birkirkira. They may be good in Malta but there's no way that they can be beaten by less then 2 goals here imo.


Maribor win 2-0 so all square. On chances, they should have won by more and had a perfectly good goal disallowed in the 2nd half for offside... meh.

What a gutter Omen... Crying or Very sad
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 7:52 am
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I've had an early bet for the weekend as I think the odds on this will shorten up considerably.

Cruzeiro v Atletico Mineiro over 2.5 goals 400 @ 2.07 (4) with Pinnacle

Mineiro won the Copa Libertadores last night after extra time and penalties so are going to be tired but on a massive high. The game was actually played at Cruzeiro's ground due to regulations over the minimum capacity and these 2 teams are huge rivals which means that however tired they are, they are going to be up for this game.

It helps that they also happen to be the best 2 attacking sides in Brazil at the moment and their last 8 games, home and away, have gone over 2.5 goals.
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:58 pm
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I've just had 300 @ 2/1 on Sturm Graz to beat Breidablik. They're 0-1 down at half time but should be way too good for this young Icelandic side. It's a bit speculative as Breidablik are very quick to counter but I fancy Sturm to turn this around.
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:29 pm
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Brodders wrote:
I've just had 300 @ 2/1 on Sturm Graz to beat Breidablik. They're 0-1 down at half time but should be way too good for this young Icelandic side. It's a bit speculative as Breidablik are very quick to counter but I fancy Sturm to turn this around.


Have also gone big in the Hacken v Sparta Prague game.

Sparta are by some way the better side and I fully expect them to win this game. They drew 2-2 after going 2-0 up in the 1st leg by being lazy and thinking they had done the job. Hacken are a goalscoring side but also have a poor defence so I have had the following -

400 on over 2.5 goals @ 13/8
400 Sparta to win @ 10/11
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 7:47 am
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Well that was rubbish yesterday... Sturm can't beat a 10 man young Icelandic side and Sparta decide to mess up against a mid table Swedish side with a terrible defence. My apologies to anyone that followed those yesterday.

To rub salt into the wounds I had a further 300 at half time on Sparta to win so the new running total is 6,213.10

Today, I've had a bet in Bulgaria -

Litex Lovich to beat Lokomotiv Sofia 400 @ Evs (4) Bet365

William Hill are going 23/20 for those that can get on with them.

Litex are going to be challenging for the title this year and are up against a fading Lokomotiv side. Litex had issues last year away from home but they have a new manager and the signs are that they have addressed this tactically and on quality should have way too much for Lokomotiv.
Indestructible
Royal Flush


Joined: 21 May 2005
Posts: 15760
Location: Final Table

PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:50 am
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Do you plan to keep going come what may to get to 10k or do you plan to stop if you fell back below a figure?
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:47 pm
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Indestructible wrote:
Do you plan to keep going come what may to get to 10k or do you plan to stop if you fell back below a figure?


Hi Indy

If the bank roll goes, it goes and then it will be over - I won't re-load but hopefully it will go the other way Wink
MFCMark00
Straight


Joined: 22 Aug 2012
Posts: 369

PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:27 pm
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Are you using an eWallet to move between sites, or just a bank account and debit card?

Will probably try to take it a bit more serious this season as I'm playing less poker so have more time for research, so want more options than BetFair and my usual bookie.

I use an eWallet for poker due to USD, but that means getting one for GBP is more difficult.
Nem
Royal Flush


Joined: 26 Apr 2005
Posts: 17557

PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:50 pm
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Have money bookers in usd and Neteller in gbp
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 3:53 pm
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MFCMark00 wrote:
Are you using an eWallet to move between sites, or just a bank account and debit card?

Will probably try to take it a bit more serious this season as I'm playing less poker so have more time for research, so want more options than BetFair and my usual bookie.

I use an eWallet for poker due to USD, but that means getting one for GBP is more difficult.


I have money on account with 4 main bookies at the moment - Bet365, SBOBET, Pinnacle and Paddy Power who tend to be the people who will lay my bets. I'll move money around via my bank account from one to the other if required.

Betfair would be perfect but it doesn't have the liquidity in the smaller markets that I tend to look at.
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:27 am
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I've had 1 bet today in Finland -

Lahti v Honka over 2.5 goals 300 @ 6/5 (3)

Honka are the better side but have this game off the back of a difficult trip to Poland in the week which saw them knocked out of the Europa League. Lahti have been doing really well in the last few weeks and have a lively attack who could have plenty of success against a tired Honka defence. I see both teams scoring here and there definitely being a winner. 6/5 is way too big for overs.
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2013 9:34 am
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Nice result in the Cruzeiro game (over 2.5 goals in the first half) but I messed up by having 400 on Corinthians in running to beat Sao Paolo Sad

New running total is 6,741.10

I really like one today -

Zenit -1AH v Nordsjaelland 500 @ 2.04 (5)

Nordsjaelland are at home but should be hopelessly out of their depth against Zenit. They have lost their 2 best players from last year and look a shadow of the side. Zenit have continued to improve and we might even see Arshavin return to some form now he's back home ! They have some great attackers and are already in the Russian season so will have a fitness advantage to go with quality.

In last seasons CL home games, Nordsjaelland lost heavily to Chelsea and Shaktar with an extremely lucky but creditable draw with Juventus in the middle.

I can't see any way that Zenit don't win this game but have taken the Asian insurance here as they have a habit of letting in the odd silly goal. This could easily be 1-3 or 1-4.
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2013 9:40 am
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For anyone remotely interested, I've calculated my ROI so far and it's 15.59% (going down to 13.5% if the Zenit bet doesn't win !)
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2013 2:14 pm
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I've had another 2 bets in the Champions League today -

Nomme Kalju v Plzen

Over 3 goals (Asian) 300 @ 1.975 (3)
Over 3.5 goals 300 @ 2.425 (3)

Plzen have always been a very strong tactical side who tended to be efficient rather than wild in their games. That seems to have changed this year and they've decided that they're just going to outscore their opponents come what may. They've played 2 league games so far and won them 5-0 and 2-4 not to mention the 2 games against Zelejnicar in the last round of this which they won 4-3 and 1-2 (only not more goals in this because they went down to 10 men)

My only concern with these bets is whether Kalju are going to be able to help out with the scoring but they have a good home record and I would expect them to score a goal against this gung-ho Plzen side. The worst case scenario is Plzen win this 0-2 but they don't seem to have the tactical discipline to do that at the moment and they want to bury sides !

Anyone wanting to buy money can back Plzen at around 4/11 - they are MILES better than Kalju with the only leveller being the state of the pitch.
Brodders
Quads


Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Posts: 1600

PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2013 11:06 am
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Plzen beat Kalju 4-0 so both bets came in yesterday. With negative, unambitious Zenit winning 1-0 (meaning money back) the new running totals are -

7,461.10 with an ROI of 17.84%

Today I like one a lot, and I mean a lot.

Atletico Mineiro v Atletico Paranaense over 2.5 goals 500 @ 1.84 (5) and 500 on over 3 goals (Asian) @ 2.35 (5)

Mineiro have finished their Libertadores campaign as winners and rested some of their main players (surprisingly) for their last game against bitter rivals Cruzeiro. That resulted in a 4-1 stuffing so it is certain that they are going to want to bounce back today with the likes of Ronaldinho back on show. They are arguably the best attacking side in Brazil but have a suspect defence but are some way down the league due to resting players for the Libertadores. Now that's out the way, they can concentrate on the league for while and I expect them to start winning games convincingly.

It helps that Paranaense know only one way of playing as 2 games of 3-2 and a 4-3 from 4 away fixtures shows (they had a 1-0 loss to Coritiba in the middle which is very normal with the way Coritiba play. They attack and attack but have a terrible defence which will see them wide open to Mineiro tonight.

This has all the makings of a 4-2 or a 5-1 and getting a shade over 4/5 on over 2.5 goals is giving it away in my opinion. I've also bet on over 3 goals as I honestly can't see this game finishing with less than 3 and 75% it will have 4 or more. Minerio could clear this comfortably on their own.
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