Joined: 02 Feb 2007 Posts: 3123 Location: with position on you
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2012 11:48 am Post subject: Champions League Semi-Finals
So come on then......can we make ANY case at all for Chelsea beating Barcelona in the semis?? Is RDM the wrong man at the wrong time and is he tactically aware enough and would it make any difference if he was??
It is difficult to find more than a 10-15% chance at best for Chelsea coming through this tie but things can go wrong for technically superior sides and variance can play a part over 180 minutes. Chelsea can cause Barcelona problems going forward as many teams can but defensively they are the worst side in the tournament by far. Recent games against Fulham and Wigan have exposed them at the back and one dreads to think what Barcelona will do.
If I were Chelsea I would use every trick in the book to waste time in the first leg and reduce the "90 minutes" by as much as possible. This means delaying goal kicks, throw ins free kicks......everything. You will get away with this tactic at 0-0 far more than when you are winning because a home 0-0 would be a great result for Chelsea and who knows.....they could nick a goal and go back to the Nou Camp with a lead.
Meanhwhile back on planet earth......likely that Barce will do to them what they did to Arsenal and steamroller them in the Nou Camp anyway. Real vs Bayern looks intriguing but what is also interesting is in how Real's 10pt lead in La Liga is now just 4pts and they have to go to the Nou Camp. If they lose the league and don't win the CL then Mourinho could be at the Etihad next season possibly. _________________ Poker columnist at www.poker.co.uk
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2012 12:43 pm Post subject: Re: Champions League Semi-Finals
Pretty accurate and sensible assessment there mate - I only said to a mate the other day we have a 15% chance (tops)
In 2009 we were seconds away from beating them after having 4 stonewall penalties turned down, three years down the line and we are not as strong as back then - Essien is finished, Lampards legs have gone, Drogba isn't as consistent, Ballack is gone etc BUT the one thing we can do is shut teams out, there isn't really a good result at home, because Milan tried the 0-0 at home thing, and it didn't work. The scary thing, even if we were to win 2-0, Barca would still be favourites
Messi also plays the central role now, we have never played against this...could be interesting!Truth is, they have too much quality, and are too strong at home, RDM doesn't really have a chance, he may not be as tactically as astute as Hiddink but Guus had more legs at the time and a bigger squad...
The other tie looks interesting, but you have to fancy the team that are topping La Liga against a side second in the Budesliga, also Jose knows Robben very well, and will also stop Ribery, which takes out Bayerns biggest threats.
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2012 3:11 pm Post subject: Re: Champions League Semi-Finals
sundance wrote:
Pretty accurate and sensible assessment there mate - I only said to a mate the other day we have a 15% chance (tops)
In 2009 we were seconds away from beating them after having 4 stonewall penalties turned down, three years down the line and we are not as strong as back then - Essien is finished, Lampards legs have gone, Drogba isn't as consistent, Ballack is gone etc BUT the one thing we can do is shut teams out, there isn't really a good result at home, because Milan tried the 0-0 at home thing, and it didn't work. The scary thing, even if we were to win 2-0, Barca would still be favourites
Messi also plays the central role now, we have never played against this...could be interesting!Truth is, they have too much quality, and are too strong at home, RDM doesn't really have a chance, he may not be as tactically as astute as Hiddink but Guus had more legs at the time and a bigger squad...
The other tie looks interesting, but you have to fancy the team that are topping La Liga against a side second in the Budesliga, also Jose knows Robben very well, and will also stop Ribery, which takes out Bayerns biggest threats.
Unfortunately, I have to agree with this. I was at the 2nd leg v Benfica and watching them pass it around our midfield on the night put the fear of god into me when you consider it's going to be Xavi, Iniesta, Fabregas (if he can get a game) and Messi running rings round us. This Chelsea team is 4 years too late to win the Champions League and RDM isn't tactically astute enough (yet) to come up with a plan for us to beat them, even if we did have the players (which we don't)
My one hope is that this post has the same +EV as getting up when All In or shouting "One Time" in an annoying American accent !!
Joined: 02 Feb 2007 Posts: 3123 Location: with position on you
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2012 3:51 pm Post subject: Re: Champions League Semi-Finals
sundance wrote:
Pretty accurate and sensible assessment there mate - I only said to a mate the other day we have a 15% chance (tops)
In 2009 we were seconds away from beating them after having 4 stonewall penalties turned down, three years down the line and we are not as strong as back then - Essien is finished, Lampards legs have gone, Drogba isn't as consistent, Ballack is gone etc BUT the one thing we can do is shut teams out, there isn't really a good result at home, because Milan tried the 0-0 at home thing, and it didn't work. The scary thing, even if we were to win 2-0, Barca would still be favourites
Messi also plays the central role now, we have never played against this...could be interesting!Truth is, they have too much quality, and are too strong at home, RDM doesn't really have a chance, he may not be as tactically as astute as Hiddink but Guus had more legs at the time and a bigger squad...
The other tie looks interesting, but you have to fancy the team that are topping La Liga against a side second in the Budesliga, also Jose knows Robben very well, and will also stop Ribery, which takes out Bayerns biggest threats.
I know what you are saying mate about the Milan vs Barce first leg but when Milan equalised in the second leg to go ahead in the tie then they could have easily scored the next goal on pure variance alone. Variance isn't often talked about in football probably because the people within the game like the pundits and ex-players are not experienced or knowledgeable in gambling or maths but it exists.
This was my point about time wasting tactics at 0-0 in the first leg........its horrible......its anti football but if you can reduce the playing length of a game then you increase the chances of an upset. Chelsea have a chance in this tie.......if they had no chance then there would be no betting market. Chelsea can win the Champions League but in order to do so they will need to ride their luck and ride it massively in a similar way to England this summer.
I would make them 15% here at best and probably 2/1 dogs in the final at best and so you are looking at them winning it from here at around 5% at best in my book. The Barcelona odds would be affected by the presence of Messi for sure......hopefully he gets nailed in a La Liga game or Terry nails him at the Bridge and takes the red card for the cause with five minutes to go and 0-0 that takes them both out of the second leg _________________ Poker columnist at www.poker.co.uk
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2012 4:50 pm Post subject: Re: Champions League Semi-Finals
Get RDM to watch the video of 2-1 LFC win at the Nou Camp which employed a number of key tactics which worked on the night. Firstly they got Riise and Bellamy counter attacking quickly down the left and this had great success. It gave Danny Alves lots of problems defensively and stopped him attacking, as he was getting turned around at pace far to often for his liking.
LFC in effect sacrified the RH side of the pitch that night and played a lop sided formation which concentrated its attacks down the left (via Arbeloa, Riise and Bellamy)
When LFC attacked it was always at pace, ie quick balls out and 3-4 LFC players would counter and try to create chances - the rest would hold a compact formation awaiting the attack (and conserving the much needed energy to defend).
As soon as the ball came into the LFC half, they pressurised and hunted in packs and limited the space afforded to the Barca attacking players.
The problem is this Barca side is a lot better then he one in 2007
Joined: 02 Feb 2007 Posts: 3123 Location: with position on you
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2012 9:16 pm Post subject: Re: Champions League Semi-Finals
Quote:
The problem is this Barca side is a lot better then he one in 2007
And also better than the side that United beat in the 2008 semis 1-0 on agg when Barcelona rarely troubled United and Ronaldo missed a pen in the Nou Camp first leg. _________________ Poker columnist at www.poker.co.uk
Joined: 02 Feb 2007 Posts: 3123 Location: with position on you
Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 11:14 am Post subject: Re: Champions League Semi-Finals
oneshotbob wrote:
Chelsea are 4-1 to win at home on Boylesports.
I don't think that can happen too often. Any value?
It is hard to say because value is based largely on individual opinions. It feels slightly on the high side to me and is a probable over reaction to Barce being so good. As a rule firms know they can squeeze the Barce price and still get action because of how good they are. Same for Arsenal last night vs Wigan as many people pile into Arsenal as a home "banker" in a similar way that you would have piled into United last week at Wigan as an away "banker".
The prices contract as a rule beyond optimal levels and so value often can found backing the draw or the underdog........if you can accept the long losing sequences that come from backing underdogs that is even when they are value. This is why people lump on favourites.....they come in often even though long term they are ultimately not profitable. I laid Tottenham and Liverpool at the weekend in the cup semis because I felt that both games as a one off fixture on a neutral ground were coin flips and so I felt that a correct price should have been around 2/1 all three possible results.
Andy Carroll shafted me with that late goal but I was still happy with the bets. I think there is some value opposing Barce but it may be too thin to bother with when your bet will hit the dust a lot of the time. _________________ Poker columnist at www.poker.co.uk
Joined: 02 Feb 2007 Posts: 3123 Location: with position on you
Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 11:25 am Post subject: Re: Champions League Semi-Finals
For the record.....don't do what I did on Saturday and lay somebody without having access to the internet. When Suarez equalised then I could have got out of that bet with a profit or with a few minutes to go then I could have greened it up for a big profit and then been up on the two bets over the weekend instead of being slightly down as the extra value in letting it run for the final three minutes plus stoppage time doesnt equate to the pain that you feel when everything gets wiped out by one single Liverpool goal _________________ Poker columnist at www.poker.co.uk
Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 4:05 pm Post subject: Re: Champions League Semi-Finals
oneshotbob wrote:
Chelsea are 4-1 to win at home on Boylesports.
I don't think that can happen too often. Any value?
For the record, and as you have probably read from previous posts, I am a very pessimistic Chelsea supporter, but I have a funny feeling about tomorrow. All of a sudden RDM has found a winning formula and is getting the best out of certain players, the teams almost picks itself for tomorrow, Ivanovic, Cahill (inforced) Meireles, and probably Sturridge in for Bos, Luiz, Lampard, Kalou, with possibly Torres in for Drogba. On paper not a side to beat Barca perhaps, but then again who are?
Cech and Terry are back to top form again this season and have had spells in the season when they have been playing like they were 5-7 years ago. Mikel has been our best player in many of the games that RDM has been in charge and he's even getting the best out of Kalou
Although I seldom bet on Chelsea 4/1 does look good value to me, although it depends on how much you were thinking about betting, just for fun then go for that, although for the bigger punter I might suggest Chelsea with the +1 handicap?
Depends if you can stomach cheering on Chelsea for the night
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