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Murph
Straight Flush

Joined: 23 Jul 2008
Posts: 2900

 Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:05 pmPost subject: "never call for a split pot" I don't remember where I first heard it but i've always remembered it. I can't really comment on the hand itself because I would be a serious contender for the worst cash game player in the world.
Alex B
Straight Flush

Joined: 25 Apr 2005
Posts: 2780
Location: London

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:27 pm
Post subject:

 darrensprengers wrote: i am assuming pocket sevens as he called the flop and was not on a flush draw on the turn as he cant have A2 or A6 of hearts which enable the flop call and flush on river.

This really is assuming opponents play rationally though! My first thoughts were that villain can have any hearts overs with a 7 or an Ace, and pretty much any suited semi-connector with a 7: I think its a pass.

I agree though that, IF we can assume villain will fold splits to a shove, all the callers should be shoving since he has to have split or worse ~25% to call, and risking our 90 as a bluff at the 52 in the middle is a better return on a 75%+ success.

But if he sometimes calls the splits it could go wrong. Or it could go wrong if when an unknown suddenly over bets a third of stack, its because he has some approximation of the nuts and the dollar signs started ringing in his eyes. I think he's sort-of using Zeebo theorem, hoping hero will pay.
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MattF
Straight

Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Posts: 450

Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 3:13 am
Post subject:

 Checkov wrote: Effectively he is calling \$32 to win \$11 or 11-to-32, so if he chops > 32/43 ~ 75% it's a profitable call.

Yeah but there's presumably going to be \$3 of rake so it's actually 32-to-9.25 which is even less tempting. I think the overbet is designed to look like a bluff in any case.
fraac
Banned

Joined: 09 Aug 2006
Posts: 4399

 Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 3:28 amPost subject: It's meant to look like something. That's why I'm tempted to call. He wants to enter The Game. You can't beat him at this stage, with no information, but he does and will want to play. You may as well join the fray. If it was your last hand of the night I'd still fold or shove a bigger stack.
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