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royal flush 1990
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 4:10 pm
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Morello
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 4:46 pm
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Imagine if he had called Shocked

Helmuth would have exploded!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Dean
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:26 pm
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If Hellmuth had bet more on the river then he would have increased the likelihood of a call. He made a great bet on the river because it looked like a milking bet and this was precisely what he wanted Dwan to think.

A pot sized bet or more than pot or a bet of less than 30k would have been called......good play by Hellmuth.

I still think that he could take Dwan live.......but only my opinion.


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The Dean
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:46 pm
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Morello wrote:
Imagine if he had called Shocked

Helmuth would have exploded!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



I dont think so, Phil would have seen it for what it was......a good call.
Actually my article next week is on this very hand.


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FloppedAces2
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:54 pm
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Ive got to disagree with you there Dean! Is this the same Phil Hellmuth were talking about? When I watched it I was really thinking Durr was gonna call that river bet and yes it would have been an amazing call but I think that Hellmuth would have severely criticised his call pre flop and also his turn call if I know Phil!!!! What do others who have watched the clip think?

PS Looking forward to the article
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 5:02 pm
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I think he would have exploded for sure. I mean, he just had another go at Mike Baxter for catching a river card, but it was Phil's usual slow play at fault.
The Dean
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 7:28 pm
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Morello wrote:
I think he would have exploded for sure. I mean, he just had another go at Mike Baxter for catching a river card, but it was Phil's usual slow play at fault.



Its all academic of course because we will never know but there is a big difference between someone calling and hitting a river card and someone making a call based on a read and getting pot odds.

I think that Hellmuth may have been angry but more of himself than anything that his move didnt come off. Then when Dwan called we would have had the usual Hellmuth banter of how much Dwan should have called for and how much he shouldnt have called for but I dont think that he would have kicked off......he didnt have any reason to......but then again he does so many things for show that you never can tell anymore.

Having said that, in reply to what Flopped Aces said, I have to agree that he may have been very critical of Dwans pre-flop call or possibly his turn call but my article discusses this next Thursday.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:59 pm
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Looking forward to the article Dean, great hand imo. Thought Hellmuth played it as well as he could have.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 12:08 am
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What's with the multiple !!!'s I see appearing all over the place recently? (not just this forum)

As for the hand I thought Hellmuth played it as well as he could have, as the dean said the bet sizing was perfect.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 1:08 am
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I think Dwan's out-of-position turn call is appalling if he is just going to check-fold a fairly innocuous river. The Qd doesn't change the texture of the board all that much because Hellmuth is surely betting a diamond draw on the flop. It is certainly should not be a sufficient scare card to change Dwan's plan. He is effectively calling $20k in the hope that Hellmuth will check down the river and, on top of that, the hope that his pair of twos will be good at showdown. However, if his pair of twos is good, it makes it even less likely that Hellmuth will check it down, so his two requirements for winning the hand are almost mutually exclusive! A lose-lose scenario.

It seems to me he might have had a good instinct that Hellmuth was on the bluff, but the way he played it gave him little-to-no chance of winning. His must re-raise the turn or be done with the hand then and there. Quite often these supposedly top players actually out-play themselves.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:14 am
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Moo wrote:
I think Dwan's out-of-position turn call is appalling if he is just going to check-fold a fairly innocuous river. The Qd doesn't change the texture of the board all that much because Hellmuth is surely betting a diamond draw on the flop. It is certainly should not be a sufficient scare card to change Dwan's plan. He is effectively calling $20k in the hope that Hellmuth will check down the river and, on top of that, the hope that his pair of twos will be good at showdown. However, if his pair of twos is good, it makes it even less likely that Hellmuth will check it down, so his two requirements for winning the hand are almost mutually exclusive! A lose-lose scenario.

It seems to me he might have had a good instinct that Hellmuth was on the bluff, but the way he played it gave him little-to-no chance of winning. His must re-raise the turn or be done with the hand then and there. Quite often these supposedly top players actually out-play themselves.




The point is that Dwan didnt know that he was going to fold the river and he almost called it. There is nothing wrong with his pre-flop call and this is standard at this level. But you simply cannot be tied to doing a certain thing on the river all because of what you did pre-flop......that is crazy.

But you are correct in that sometimes, the top players outthink themselves but this is also normal at this level because multi-level thinking is what makes these players what they are but it isnt infallable and often breaks down.

I think Hellmuths action in going to turn his hand over also added to Dwans thinking because he appeared to do it so quickly when Dwan went to bet that it looked natural.......I thought that was fantastic....he conned Dwan.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:28 am
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Is it just me - or was this hand also played on tells.?
And if anything i does seemthat Helmuth is responding to this more so than the cards - i think at the very least he has taken his cue from it.

Both certainly gave them off and it did appear the Helmuth was deliberately adding them to his image in the hand.

I am probably going to look silly here but ill go out on a limb to say that dwan was giving off clean honest tells (two of which i count) - and Helmuth was giving of fake but Dwan had this in his mind if the fact that Helmuth was giving off blatantly fake tells ( and really quite blatantly on the river) meant to Dwan that Helmuth must be doing so deliberatley and if that is the case, but this clouded things more in his mind rather than made it clear and that may have added to the uncertainty and got Helmuth his fold.

Note also that once Helmuth starts out by responding to the tell then it is easier to make the bet amount he does because he is continuing a theme

after rewatching - the fact that Helmuths turn raise comes in within 5 seconds of Dwans second tel ( his confirmation tell for the first tell if you like.) sugests to me Helmuth was playing back more based on this - and the river bet is the logical continuation bet ffrom that point if he is acting on the tell from the turn (its there but not as big on the river)
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 10:39 am
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Helmuth dosn't seem to do do well in cash games .Watching this hand explains why.The only reason the kid didnt call is cause he had a 2 any other card he calls.Helmuth plays tournament bluffs on bad players to win his bracelets and then try's it in cash games against great players.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 10:45 am
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Dwan can certainly call with a deuce. it isnt the hardest call in the world and certainly if i am capable of figuring it out and calling correctly - then Dwan ceratinly can.

he called the turn raise with no draw- as moo says, why did he call the turn to fold the river.
has he convinced himself of Helmuth holding AQ ?there certainly wont be an undercard on the river - he isnt calling to pair up / trip up on the river - as he knows he isnt getting any more money out of helmuth if he is bluffing and he cant call the turn if he thinks otherwise - so he probably thinks his two is winning.
if i had to guess he puts helmut on a weak ace or suited conectors - the weak ace he may be able to move him off and the suited conectors again are playable against - unfortunatley the Q is a very reasonable card for helmuth to hold if he is making a play at the hand - it might even be more scary than the Ace
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:33 pm
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The Dean wrote:
The point is that Dwan didnt know that he was going to fold the river and he almost called it. There is nothing wrong with his pre-flop call and this is standard at this level. But you simply cannot be tied to doing a certain thing on the river all because of what you did pre-flop......that is crazy.

I didn't mention Dwan's pre-flop play, I was referring to his turn call. I don't see the point of it if he is just going to check-fold to a not particularly scary river card? He seems to be relying on two things to happen here: Hellmuth to check behind AND his pair of twos to be good at showdown, but I argue that these are mutually exclusive because Hellmuth must bet the river if he is losing to a pair of twos. If, on the other hand, he thinks Qd is genuine scare card such that it changes his hand strength from a turn call to a river fold, then he must make strong hands like AQ and KQ a large part of Hellmuth's range, in which case why is he playing K2 when he is dominated by a range like that? Also, if Qd is a scare card, what isn't? If he puts Hellmuth on a weak ace or suited connectors, then any medium-to-low card on the river is going to make him squirm a little? Probably the only cards he is truly happy to see are K or a board pair and he can't seriously be calling $20k to hit one of those.

The Dean wrote:
I think Hellmuths action in going to turn his hand over also added to Dwans thinking because he appeared to do it so quickly when Dwan went to bet that it looked natural.......I thought that was fantastic....he conned Dwan.

This was the best bit of the footage. I think Dwan was definitely angle-shooting by faking to call. I'm not sure if Hellmuth deliberately moved to turn over his cards as it seemed too quick. It looked more reflexive than that. If it was a deliberate false tell, then kudos to him. Either way, it was certainly a major factor contributing to Dwan's fold.
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