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PunterAssist
High Card


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 1:39 pm
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TOTTENHAM V SWANSEA:

Following in the footsteps of Figo and Zidane, Gareth Bale is the latest galactico, however Tottenham have brought in some exciting players to fill the void even though Chelsea hijacked their move for William during the week right from under their doctors nose and Mourinho sticking the knife in by telling them to keep their medicals secret in future. Tottenham have agreed to sign Steaua Bucharest defender Vlad Chiriches and are linked with Erik Lamela from Roma along with Christian Eriksen and The Hulk who will be in addition to Etienne Capoue (Toulouse) 9m, Nacer Chadli (FC Twente) 7m, Paulinho (Corinthians) 17m, Roberto Soldado (Valencia) 26m.
Swansea have made a great signing in the form of Wilfried Bony (Vitesse Arnhem) 12m who was the 2013 Eredivisie Player Of The Year and he will link up extremely well with Michu and they should rack up a combined 25+ goals over the season.

Tottenham had a 5-0 rout of Dinamo Tbilisi during the week and are worthy favourites to win this match at home however Swanseas hammering at the hands of Man Utd was unjustified and they threatened for long periods in that match and should get on the scoresheet today. Their talent shone through on Thursday night when they beat Petrolul Ploieşti 5-1.

Soldado is the most likely goalscorer for Tottenham and he can be had to score anytime at 2.0 with Boylesports.

Recommended Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.75 (BetVictor)


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Nem
Royal Flush


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:21 am
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Quote:

for those fortunate enough to have active bet365 accounts, their 50 free inplay bet on the liverpool/united match means they're effectively giving 7-2 against united. Like finding money on the floor!
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PunterAssist
High Card


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2013 5:05 pm
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Japanese J-League

Cerezo Osaka (4th) v Kawasaki Frontale (8th)

Kawasaki's last 15 matches went over 2.5 goals and have the highest goals scored stats in the league thanks to Ōkubo, the league top scorer who has netted in 8 out of his last matches. 6 out of 10 of the last Cerezo home games have gone over 2.5 goals. The last 3 meetings between these sides ended with at least 4 goals. Cerezo have an average of 3 goals in the last 6 matches while Kawasaki have an average of 3.33 goals.

Kawasaki have an enormous average goals per game with a consistent record with 82% of their matches going over 2.5 goals with an average of 3.91 goals per game over the season. Cerezo are a team that plays open football when at home to an attack minded opponent as can be see by their home games this season against Yokohama and Urawa Reds.

Punter Assist Prediction: This match has an 82% chance of going over 2.5 goals. At odds of 1/2 with Paddy Power this yields a ROI of 23%.

Season J-League Stats:
Cerezos matches go over 2.5 goals 52% (63% at home) of the time with an average of 2.52 goals per game.
Kawasaki Frontales matches go over 2.5 goals 82% (83% away) of the time with an average of 3.91 goals per game.
Kawasaki's last 15 matches went over 2.5 goals.
PunterAssist
High Card


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2013 6:05 pm
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Bayern Munich v Chelsea - UEFA Super Cup

Bayern started their last match with a weakened lineup as Guardiola had rested seven major names for the midweek league encounter, among them the likes of Ribry, Lahm, Robben, Mandukić and Alaba in preparation for this match and this is a trophy that Bayern have never won but mainly this is a chance for revenge over Chelsea after they lost the Champions League final to a Drogba masterclass.

Already Jos Mourinho has added some extra spice by declaring that under Jupp Heynckes, Bayern were the best in Europe. Now, I'm not so sure. This will be a showcase for two of the modern eras most celebrated managers and I expect both teams to put in some hard tackles and turn this match into a midfield battle with neither team getting their accustomed dominance in front of goal.

Chelsea have bought almost every available midfielder this summer to the point where they could make a challenge for the top 4 in the premier league with a team completely comprised of midfielders and they are catching Bayern at an opportune moment as Bayern have, by their standards, been struggling to score, notching up only one goal against both Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt.

To add to Guardiola's woes, two of his key midfielders, Thiago and Javi Martnez, are currently out through injury with Lahm taking up the defensive midfield position which will restrict Bayerns attacking options as they can't leave him exposed and there is the added factor of Pep Guardiola's system at Barcelona which was very intricate, and it takes a lot of time for players to master it.

Mourinho will set Chelsea up more defensively than usual against Bayern who have a huge conversion rate so he will want to restrict their shooting opportunities however his team is not built around defensive strengths as their forwards hold so much possession against most of their opponents even though they restricted Man Utd to 3 shots on target in their last match that was more down to Utds formation and Valencias poor transition play.
In tonights match I would expect about 8-10 shots on target and with both teams having world class goalkeepers I expect them to command their areas very well and both keepers have the confidence to catch the ball rather than punch it and both sets of defenses are comprised of extremely efficient internationals who will not panic under pressure. The current price of 1.83 on over 2.5 goals is correct in my opinion and I am much more interested in the market of total goals in the match to be exactly 2 or 3 goals @ evens with Bet365 and Paddy Power which I predict to occur approx 55% of the time.


The market that hold the most appeal for me in this match is the corners and I am going with total corners to be under 9 at 3.00 with #Ladbrokes which I expect to win approx 50% of the time for a massive ROI of 50%.


#Chelsea lineup: Cech; Ivanovic, Cahill, D Luiz, Cole; Ramires, Lampard (c); Hazard, Oscar, Schurrle; Torres.
#BayernMunich Lineup: Neuer - Dante, Ribry, Mandzukić, Robben, Rafinha, Boateng, Lahm, Mller, Alaba, Kroos
PunterAssist
High Card


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 8:08 pm
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Arsenal v Tottenham

Tottenham come into this match 3 points ahead of Arsenal thanks to two narrow 1-0 wins, both Soldado penalties. Arsenal have won 5-2 in the last two North London derbies at The Emirates, with Tottenhams 3-2 win in 2010 being their first away win at Arsenal in the Premier League since 1993 however Tottenham have failed to concede a goal this season and look a much more solid team with Capoue, Sandro, Dembele and Paulinho vying for places in midfield.

Arsenal will be without Lukas Podolski after the German limped off with a torn hamstring in their 3-0 win over Fenerbahce in midweek. Gareth Bale wont play for Tottenham again and is expected to complete his move to Real Madrid in the next couple of days.

This fixture has produced more goals than any other fixture in Premier League history and in previous seasons this match would have been a clear over 2.5 goals bet, which would have won in the last 9 meetings, but with Tottenham's new personnel changing their style from being a very fast counter attacking team to a more compact high pressing team and Podolski's injury the 1.7 (Bet365) for over 2.5 goals is looking to be the fair odds.

10 of Olivier Girouds 11 goals came at The Emirates last season and he has never scored outside of London in the Premier League and he can be had at 2.88 (Stan James) to score anytime which does appeal as Arsenal will have to try to play a more long ball approach to their big frontman to combat the physicality of Tottenham's midfield.

Tottenham will need Paulinhos energy in midfield alongside Capoue and Mousa Dembele to limit the time that Arsenals more creative players such as Santi Cazorla and Jack Wilshere (doubtful) have on the ball.

There is an added element to this match in that it is a north London derby and both teams fans will demand 100% commitment and it is very likely that these two teams will be playing for 4th place this season so it is more important not to lose than it is to win this match.

Arsenal head into the game with a host of injuries, as midfielders Jack Wilshere (ankle) and Aaron Ramsey (groin) are both doubts, while Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (knee), Thomas Vermaelen (back), Mikel Arteta (thigh) and Lukas Podolski (hamstring) all miss out. Tottenham have doubts over the fitness of Aaron Lennon (ankle).

Arsenal had a good win over Fenerbahce midweek to follow up their impressive win over Fulham last weekend while Tottenham have made hard work against bottom half teams in their opening two league games.

Tottenham will be on the back foot in this match and their midfield will be putting in some strong tackles to combat the speed of Arsenal's midfield and they will get a few yellow cards especially if Arsenal take the lead who go into this match as favourites while Tottenham are still getting to know their new players.

Recommended Bet: Tottenham -0.5 Total Cards @ 1.825 (Bet365)

Predicted strike rate: 70% for a ROI of 28%
barmybadger
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:30 am
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i had a dream.

west ham 1-0 man city ravel morrison

125/1 on ladbrokes. i believe the goal will be scored in the 37th minute.
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MFCMark00
Straight


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:40 am
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Sounds like a nightmare
Indestructible
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 4:14 pm
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3-1 to City Cool
peterH
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 19, 2013 6:23 pm
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Indestructible wrote:
3-1 to City Cool


How much did you have on it? Very Happy
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Indestructible
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 11:52 am
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Nothing Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad
tjm8
Straight Flush


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 26, 2013 4:57 pm
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a couple of long odds on skybet for 'to be carded at anytime' in the City vs LFC game

Lescott at 13/2 - defenders are often 4/1 at the most and up against Suarez, Sterling and Coutinho, so good chance of been beaten for pace and skill
Sterling at 7/1 - has a habit of flying into tackles

Think there is value in both of these.
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