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the shiver
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 2:00 am
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funnyname wrote:
The Reverend wrote:
Quite, 6/5 on Chelsea at White Hart Lane is NOT good odds.


Why?

Spurs's season is over

Chelsea are 3 points off the top of the league

Chelsea's record over Spurs for the past 10 seasons is savage (sorry don't have the exact figures, but Chelsea fans don't call it3 point lane for no reason)


i cant help but agree, im a spurs fan and i think this is a NAP chelsea win and i HATE chelsea...6/5 is huge imvho
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:18 am
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The Reverend wrote:
Match could really go any way, why take the shortest price option??? I can't say I fancy Spurs to win it but out of a draw at 3.5 and an away win at not much better than evens I know which one I'd take...




Ditto


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 12:01 pm
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Moo wrote:
Huge value on Ivo Karlovic to beat Andy Murray tonight at 12/5 with Bet365 and Totesport. Karlovic is the best server on tour at present, has developed a stylish volley over the last few years and is in good form after reaching the semis of Rotterdam last month (Murray lost to unknown Robin Haase in the first round of the same event). On his best form you would expect Murray to have too many weapons for the big Croat but, after struggling to beat low-ranked Jurgen Melzer on Sunday, I make the Scot a coin flip at best.

Murray d. Karlovic 7-6(7) 6-7(3) 6-3. You can't eat value.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 12:41 pm
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Does anyone have any earlies fancies/bets for the Grand National?
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 1:10 pm
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Big value on Tsonga to beat Nadal 2-0 at 10/3 with PaddyPower. Generally 5/2 and 11/4 elsewhere. Tsonga humiliated Rafa in the Aussie Open semis two months ago. Tennis is probably the biggest confidence game out there so previous results, especially ones as decisive as this, are hugely important. Furthermore, Tsonga has already brought his "A game" to the tournament with convincing wins over tough opponents in Sela and Mathieu (which was a big French grudge match) whereas Nadal has not been tested in his easy wins over unknowns Giraldo and Young. I think this rematch comes too soon for Rafa and I make straight sets for Tsonga the likeliest of the four outcomes.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 3:01 pm
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Moo wrote:
Moo wrote:
Huge value on Ivo Karlovic to beat Andy Murray tonight at 12/5 with Bet365 and Totesport. Karlovic is the best server on tour at present, has developed a stylish volley over the last few years and is in good form after reaching the semis of Rotterdam last month (Murray lost to unknown Robin Haase in the first round of the same event). On his best form you would expect Murray to have too many weapons for the big Croat but, after struggling to beat low-ranked Jurgen Melzer on Sunday, I make the Scot a coin flip at best.

Murray d. Karlovic 7-6(7) 6-7(3) 6-3. You can't eat value.




I agreed with you though on this one, 12/5 seemed value to me as this had coin flip written all over it. I would have made Karlovic under dog but not a 3.40 shot. Another case of patriotic betting affecting prices IMO.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 10:06 pm
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The Dean wrote:
Moo wrote:
funnyname wrote:
Chelsea 6/5 to beat Spurs, lump on!!

I agree. Spurs were woeful on Sunday against a decidedly mediocre City team. They did not deserve to take the lead and looked tired and jaded from their European disaster. They won't have had much of a rest and I can see Chelski putting them to the sword now that they're back in the frame for the Prem title and, of course, to avenge their Carling Cup defeat.




Its funny how value is such a grey area but IMO 6/5 Chelsea feels a tad high but not overly so to me. I wouldnt make Chelsea better than Evens.

I understand the reasons quoted but Chelsea were not exactly that great against Sunderland either and Ramos will fire Spurs up for a derby like this. Him and Poyet will not let Spurs' season end in March thats for sure.

The prices in premier matches are pretty tight usually unless the betting public drive the prices one way or the other. I fancy a draw although it could go either way IMO and MU to be 5pts clear of the blues tonight......best laid plans and all that Laughing


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Ooooppss....right again. Chelsea just had to be laid tonight IMO
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 11:36 pm
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The Dean wrote:
The Dean wrote:
Moo wrote:
funnyname wrote:
Chelsea 6/5 to beat Spurs, lump on!!

I agree. Spurs were woeful on Sunday against a decidedly mediocre City team. They did not deserve to take the lead and looked tired and jaded from their European disaster. They won't have had much of a rest and I can see Chelski putting them to the sword now that they're back in the frame for the Prem title and, of course, to avenge their Carling Cup defeat.




Its funny how value is such a grey area but IMO 6/5 Chelsea feels a tad high but not overly so to me. I wouldnt make Chelsea better than Evens.

I understand the reasons quoted but Chelsea were not exactly that great against Sunderland either and Ramos will fire Spurs up for a derby like this. Him and Poyet will not let Spurs' season end in March thats for sure.

The prices in premier matches are pretty tight usually unless the betting public drive the prices one way or the other. I fancy a draw although it could go either way IMO and MU to be 5pts clear of the blues tonight......best laid plans and all that Laughing


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Ooooppss....right again. Chelsea just had to be laid tonight IMO


Should have listened to you, good call.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 12:49 am
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Moo wrote:
Big value on Tsonga to beat Nadal 2-0 at 10/3 with PaddyPower. Generally 5/2 and 11/4 elsewhere. Tsonga humiliated Rafa in the Aussie Open semis two months ago. Tennis is probably the biggest confidence game out there so previous results, especially ones as decisive as this, are hugely important. Furthermore, Tsonga has already brought his "A game" to the tournament with convincing wins over tough opponents in Sela and Mathieu (which was a big French grudge match) whereas Nadal has not been tested in his easy wins over unknowns Giraldo and Young. I think this rematch comes too soon for Rafa and I make straight sets for Tsonga the likeliest of the four outcomes.

Tsonga wins the first set. Tiebreak in the second. Can I hit my coin flip at 10/3? Can I bollocks.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 12:54 am
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funnyname wrote:
Should have listened to you, good call.

To be fair to you, Chelsea were ahead for 72 minutes out of 90. Unfortunately one of the 18 minutes in which they weren't ahead was the last one.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 8:10 am
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Moo wrote:
funnyname wrote:
Should have listened to you, good call.

To be fair to you, Chelsea were ahead for 72 minutes out of 90. Unfortunately one of the 18 minutes in which they weren't ahead was the last one.


lol
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 4:44 pm
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Well that's me finished with sports betting for a few months, still convienced it was good bet just a bit unlucky, no one could have predicted a 4 all draw.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 6:25 pm
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The Dean wrote:
The Dean wrote:
Moo wrote:
funnyname wrote:
Chelsea 6/5 to beat Spurs, lump on!!

I agree. Spurs were woeful on Sunday against a decidedly mediocre City team. They did not deserve to take the lead and looked tired and jaded from their European disaster. They won't have had much of a rest and I can see Chelski putting them to the sword now that they're back in the frame for the Prem title and, of course, to avenge their Carling Cup defeat.




Its funny how value is such a grey area but IMO 6/5 Chelsea feels a tad high but not overly so to me. I wouldnt make Chelsea better than Evens.

I understand the reasons quoted but Chelsea were not exactly that great against Sunderland either and Ramos will fire Spurs up for a derby like this. Him and Poyet will not let Spurs' season end in March thats for sure.

The prices in premier matches are pretty tight usually unless the betting public drive the prices one way or the other. I fancy a draw although it could go either way IMO and MU to be 5pts clear of the blues tonight......best laid plans and all that Laughing


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Ooooppss....right again. Chelsea just had to be laid tonight IMO





Actually, just read that post of mine and realised that it came out wrong. When I said coin flip then this does not make Chelsea Even money because it does not take the draw into effect. IMO, because that game had coin flip stamped all over it then each result wasn't all that far away from being 2-1 in my book and this meant LAYING the blues and not backing them was the way to go.

Also I said that the Premier matches are pretty screwed down.....well they are most of the time but prices on the big boys do get a little out of line sometimes IMO.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 6:19 pm
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Liverpool to beat man u at 2.75 to 1. Is this generous odds or reflecting that man u are unbeatable at the moment?
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 6:34 pm
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Indestructable wrote:
Liverpool to beat man u at 2.75 to 1. Is this generous odds or reflecting that man u are unbeatable at the moment?



No it isn't, Liverpool are 11/4 to 10/3 (Skybet) at the moment. I think that the way that Liverpool are playing at this moment in time then 10/3 represents possible value. But the problem I have with taking that is you dont really know how Benitez is going to view this game.

He wants to finish 4th and is 3pts ahead of Everton but he is trying to balance finishing 4th which is massive for them with the Champions League quarter with Arsenal. Personally I think that Benitez will really go for this and they have the firepower to do it.

I dont think that Liverpools recent poor results against Man Utd is anything to go by because many of those were created by Liverpool not playing well and Benitez rotating his team. If I were pricing this up then I would go around 3/1 Liverpool and if I could get 7/2 I may be tempted.

By the way Indy....are you quoting decimal odds there????

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