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Mark S.
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Joined: 13 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:29 pm
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This post is not about me! I never said it was.

This post is about MY OPINION on on-line poker and why I believe its fixed.

Everyone elses are just as valid but one needs to be aware that on-line poker is a series of computer programs required to do a job and that is to make money.

However way you look at it you can't deny this!

If anyone were to be given A-A 5 times in a row would you consider the game to be fixed?
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Mark S. - Read all about my 'live' poker exploits and other ramblings:
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http://ukpoker61.blogspot.com/

**New** http://ukpoker-vendeep1.blogspot.com
donkasaurus
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:31 pm
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owenP totally agreed with you. I didn't think of that at the time of writing. It would kind of be irrelevant to check when there is no showdown.

Mark do you follow bankroll management?
Do you have Pokertracking software?
Do you multi-table? Bad beats may appear to happen more often when multi-tabling.
Where do you play on-line? I hear Absolute Poker's software is pretty safe and secure. Laughing
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MISTR0
Quads


Joined: 03 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:32 pm
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Quote:
Questions welcome!


did you steal the cookies from the cookie jar?
Trinny
Banned


Joined: 15 Sep 2007
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Location: Hanging Ten

PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:33 pm
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balloo wrote:

Do you have a stockpile of notes on your opponents?


I started off with basic notes on players
but it wasnt enough
i needed more information more data
i wanted ro know where they lived
their phone numbers
what they ate for breakfast et cetera.


Francis Bacon wrote:

Knowlegde is power


Player notes are good!
DUCY?


Last edited by Trinny on Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
Mark S.
Full House


Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 1428

PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:34 pm
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gandalf55 wrote:
I must admit I didn't make it to the end of the original post, but from what I read.......................WHAT UTTER DRIVEL!!!

I'm miles behind a lot of the contributors here both experience and skill-wise, but somehow have managed to cobble a profit together every year since I started playing online.


An excellent argument Gandolf.

"I make a profit so therefore its not fixed!"
_________________
Mark S. - Read all about my 'live' poker exploits and other ramblings:
http://ukpokerukpoker.blogspot.com/ or
http://ukpoker61.blogspot.com/

**New** http://ukpoker-vendeep1.blogspot.com
balloo
Full House


Joined: 15 Sep 2003
Posts: 1195

PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:35 pm
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Mark S. wrote:
This post is not about me! I never said it was.

This post is about MY OPINION on on-line poker and why I believe its fixed.

Everyone elses are just as valid but one needs to be aware that on-line poker is a series of computer programs required to do a job and that is to make money.

However way you look at it you can't deny this!

If anyone were to be given A-A 5 times in a row would you consider the game to be fixed?



Nope there is nothing that could happen at the table that would ever make me question online sites being rigged. If you have played enough live poker (which you have) you realise that there is nothing that is "impossible". You clearly dont understand variance Mark which is sad given that you have had an online poker site yourself for a few years.
Checkov
Royal Flush


Joined: 12 Sep 2003
Posts: 10111

PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:35 pm
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Mark S. wrote:
gandalf55 wrote:
I must admit I didn't make it to the end of the original post, but from what I read.......................WHAT UTTER DRIVEL!!!

I'm miles behind a lot of the contributors here both experience and skill-wise, but somehow have managed to cobble a profit together every year since I started playing online.


An excellent argument Gandolf.

"I make a profit so therefore its not fixed!"


Just as good as yours. I think it was more a comment on your ability as opposed to whether or not online poker is fixed.
SuffolkPunch
Two Pair


Joined: 05 Dec 2006
Posts: 71
Location: Suffolk!

PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:35 pm
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Ouch. I really hurt my leg when I fell on the floor laughing.

This post would have taken the biscuit - if only Mark had left any.
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balloo
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:36 pm
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Mark S. wrote:
gandalf55 wrote:
I must admit I didn't make it to the end of the original post, but from what I read.......................WHAT UTTER DRIVEL!!!

I'm miles behind a lot of the contributors here both experience and skill-wise, but somehow have managed to cobble a profit together every year since I started playing online.


An excellent argument Gandolf.

"I make a profit so therefore its not fixed!"



Your argument that it is rigged is pretty much the same thing! I dont make money so it must be rigged!
MISTR0
Quads


Joined: 03 Nov 2007
Posts: 1992

PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:36 pm
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M1STRO wrote:
Quote:
Questions welcome!


did you steal the cookies from the cookie jar?
David3003
Straight


Joined: 21 Apr 2007
Posts: 325
Location: Cambridge, UK

PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:37 pm
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Mark S. wrote:
Balloo,

Its a shame you're not privvy to the information I have.

Wake up & smell the coffee!


What information? If you have evidence to back your post up I would genuinaly be interested in hearing it?

IMO, online poker is not rigged. I admit to sometimes swearing at my pc at ridiculous bad beats but put this down to natural variance.

I used to think it was rigged, then changed from playing NLHE to PLO8 which I consistantly win at. In my case it turned out to be a combination of not being as good as I thought at NLHE combined with the fact that theres not as many good players at PLO8.

My point is at PLO8 I win and it doesnt matter how many times I cash out I still win, therefore how can it be rigged?
Billbullets
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Joined: 25 Mar 2007
Posts: 280

PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:37 pm
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I had my doubts but then realised i was playing awful, read a book over christmas and im more than holding my own.

If you think its rigged dont play
RobGibraltar
Out to Lunch


Joined: 03 Aug 2006
Posts: 7842
Location: York

PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:39 pm
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Ok Mark here goes.
Firstly I have no agenda in promoting or defending online poker, I used to work for an online poker/gambling company, but do not any more. I don't play a huge amount online any more simply because I prefer live play.

My experience.

I have roughly 9 years of working in IT. This includes time spent coding, testing applications, both from an end user perspective and also doing unit, system, integration and performance testing (I'll explain what each of these are in a moment). I have also done project management for software development as well as infrastructure deliveries.
I spent a year working for a large online poker company in Gibraltar as IT Change and Release Manager. This job entailed managing the testing and release of software to the network, ie all the gambling software plus other IT related changes. I lived and breathed poker software for a year.

How does a poker site generate it's numbers randomly?

There are two types of random number generation - hardware based and software based. I'll let you google these as there's enogh information available about how these work. Most, if not al major online gambling sites now use either hardware based RNG or very complex software-based RNG. Theoreticlly, software based RNG can be beaten or cracked, but it's a question of effort and time. And if they key is changed often enough then it would feasibly take longer to crack the key than the interval between key changes ie by the time the 'cracker' has worked out the key, it's already been changed.

The 'shuffling' process is similar to how a real shuffle works in most cases. The cards are assigned a unique number from 1-52 or from 0-51, these are randomly placed in an 'order' at the start of the hand and then dealt out. So your theory 'could' technically be supported for holdem type games (but not for drawing games like 7s as the system could not cater for x people folding before successive draws/streets).

What would they gain?
The example you quote I believe is pretty much the 'cash-out curse'. Firstly - why on earth would a poker site punish a succesfull player who regularly plays and then cashes out a proportion of their winnings? If they trust a site, then surely they're going to play more and take a steady profit, especially a pro player. There may be a slight advantage to giving a new player some nice hands, but if they've deposited $100 and win the same again in very short order, chances are they're ramgaing or bonus whoring or looking to make a fast buck and may not necessarily be a good long term player/customer. Someone who deposits $5000 and plays $100-max is a better as for a long term customer.

Extra rake or reg fees?
You're going to gain more in rake and reg fees from long term usage than you will from short blow-outs.

Variance
Here's the big one, and the one that quietly has all the anti-conspiracy theorists laughing. People out there, the black helicopter brigade so to speak, have been feverishly analysing tens of millions of hands trying to find proof. None can be found. A few of the early sites, when they first set up, only had about 10k unique hands, but these were quickly fond out bask in the good old days and they soon changed. So apart from this, no hard evidence has ben found by analysing huge data sets of hand histories.


The human factor (or what I like to call the "Boy have I got a scoop for you mister journalist" factor)

Do you know how many people it takes to bring a mainstream poker program to market?
I'll tell you. The answer is 'shitloads'.
A program manager, 3 or 4 project manager. A lead architect, a few senior achitects and a few junior architects. A handful of consultants. Project office staff. Lead coders and coding managers, coders, test manager, test leads, test analysts, release managers, release analysts.
Of those, approx 90% would have to know if there was a 'feature' built in which allowed or promoted. Aside from the guys at the top, do you know how much the low level guys make? Ignoring any asian-outsourcing options, the grunts doing the hard work don't make a huge amount. Even in first world countries your average coder may make less than a bus driver. only the seniors and managers are on good money. Do you honestly think with all those people, that if someone had hard proof of rigging, they wouldn't try to either a) blackmail the company or b) sell the story to a paper?

There are some other factors as well. That much extra logic (ie determine who needs to be given the beat then factoring that in) would probably double the processing overhead for each hand. Hardware is an expensive commodity (obviously they could make it back, but it's a large chunk to have to make back). A site which supports a few thousand users already has approx 200k to 600k worth of kit, for hosted options like this cost drops.

So is this totally unfeasible? How about small shady startups looking to make a fast buck?

If this were online roulette or blackjack, then I'd say you may have a point there - there are some bent roulette systems available on the market - a quick google for online casino blacklists will show these. In theory it is possible to make this for poker, but a bent operator will make more money faster by simply advertising a great deposit bonus, then simply doing a runner with the money. Roulette and BJ are easier to tweak and to code from scratch and adjust the odds - (without going into the intricacies of software engineering you'll have to accept that it's far easier to tweak a roulette payout %-age than it is to target and punish certain poker players).

Mark - there are bent roulette sites out there, and there are shady companies out there who will target poker players and steal their money, and who knows there may be a bent poker site which deals out a high percentage of premium hands and engineers bad beats, but they'll quickly be found out by the black helicopter people (and we say a big thankyou to them too).

I sincerely hope this was a new years joke Mark, you've always seemed like a fairly intelligent bloke until now.
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donkasaurus
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:39 pm
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Mark S. wrote:
This post is not about me! I never said it was.

This post is about MY OPINION on on-line poker and why I believe its fixed.

Everyone elses are just as valid but one needs to be aware that on-line poker is a series of computer programs required to do a job and that is to make money.

However way you look at it you can't deny this!

If anyone were to be given A-A 5 times in a row would you consider the game to be fixed?


What an amazing pile of rubbish! Are you seriously suggesting that the program is designed to cheat? The poker rooms make money from rake. Rake has nothing to do with computer programs! I have sat at a cash table for hours sometimes and never had A-A 5 times! Don't play the cards play the person. You can make a profit without ever recieving pocket aces.

The programs job is to deal the cards, automatically post blinds and move the button etc depending on the given rules of the game being played at the time. Nothing else. It doesn't care about anything else. Why would it?

Also if I had A-A 5 times in a row I would think it was my birthday.
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Desert_Orchid
Quads


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:39 pm
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M1STRO wrote:
M1STRO wrote:
Quote:
Questions welcome!


did you steal the maple syrup from the Mousey Mousey Markums?
Mistro. x
Hallowed by thy corned beef imo
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