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Poker Jon
Quads


Joined: 20 Jan 2008
Posts: 1659

PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 11:59 am
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Hi All,

Been meaning to post this for a while.

1/1 game at the Westfield Casino. I've been at the table for about 5 hours so far and villain has been there the same amount of time. He is mid 20's.

I've built my stack upto 700ish from 100 and villain has me covered (probably 1000 or so). I've played well so far, not really got out of line and villain probably sees me as somewhere between tight and tight aggressive. My observations on him - he plays well, has a similar image, has built his stack steadily and hasn't gone crazy. We were the best two players at the table and we had stayed out of each others way and have not played ay pots against each other.

The previous hand to the one I am about to post.

I'm BB, he is UTG +1 (we are 6 handed). There is a straddle from UTG (3) Two callers folded to me and I raise to 12 with AQ. He calls the extra and we are heads up.

Flop is Ks8d4d. I CBet 16 and he calls. Turn is a King. I check, he checks. River is a blank. I check, he bets about half the pot (30), I call in case he missed a flush draw and he shows K9 - he doesn't see my cards.

The very next hand.

I'm SB and he has straddled to 3 UTG. (still 6 handed) 1 Caller, I have AK and raise to 12. He calls from the straddle and the other player folds.

Flop is KJ9 rainbow. I bet 16, he takes his normal amount of time and raises to 50.

What do you do and why - I have about 650 behind and he has me covered.
TripSixes
Straight


Joined: 31 Jan 2013
Posts: 487

PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:50 pm
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Ugly spot against the other big stack. If I'm honest, i'm probably finding a fold here. Calling is just ugly - what do you do on the turn if you call? He's barrelling any turn here. He's got plenty of 2 pair combos, could even be raising the nuts rather than see a scare card on the turn that kills his action

Only options available are to 4bet to about 120-130 or fold. If you 4bet and he 5bets, fold. If you 4bet and he calls, I'm check folding the turn

Thinking about it, I definitely think folding is the best option here. Like you've said, you are both bossing the table, why get involved and risk the lot against the other big stack. If you have been staying out of each others way, why would he suddenly raise you with a hand you a beating in this spot?

Just my opinion like
Jack Starr
Straight Flush


Joined: 26 Jan 2006
Posts: 3118

PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 3:41 pm
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TripSixes wrote:
Ugly spot against the other big stack. If I'm honest, i'm probably finding a fold here. Calling is just ugly - what do you do on the turn if you call? He's barrelling any turn here. He's got plenty of 2 pair combos, could even be raising the nuts rather than see a scare card on the turn that kills his action

Only options available are to 4bet to about 120-130 or fold. If you 4bet and he 5bets, fold. If you 4bet and he calls, I'm check folding the turn

Thinking about it, I definitely think folding is the best option here. Like you've said, you are both bossing the table, why get involved and risk the lot against the other big stack. If you have been staying out of each others way, why would he suddenly raise you with a hand you a beating in this spot?

Just my opinion like


spot on! Very Happy
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Jack Starr
darrensprengers
Misclick


Joined: 10 Jul 2007
Posts: 7551

PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 4:30 pm
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Lets look at average play of random players. i hate doing it but it might bring something to it.

KJ9.

standard play (relevant hands)from a straddle here to not 3-bet you would be
99,KQ, KJ,K9, Q10.

I think most people against a solid player might protect his equity with a flop 3-bet or even standard raise for value. Either would be good. To stick in a 50bb 3 bet on the flop on a speculative gamble that jon has missed this type of flop seems horrendous.

There is no flush draws, no straight draws, no flush and straight draws. The board hits a raiser smack in the face. So any bluff he does will be an absolute stone cold bluff. Raising the turn with KQ basically turns it into a bluff. Not many iterations of QQ,AQ as he has KQ.

If he could work out that i would be thinking this i might try a 4 bet bluff as i can only have that range crushed and he should only call with Q10. highly risky and i would be surprised if profitable as a standard play.

If it was perfect poker i would say the straddle should fold Q10,KJ,KQ to 12 BB raise to a solid tightish player. So he should have 99 and and praying you have AK. it is 6 handed but considering how passive he played the previous hands its hard to treat it like it.
MattF
Straight


Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Posts: 459

PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 9:11 pm
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Rack up after the first hand because you're playing like a fish now.
Poker Jon
Quads


Joined: 20 Jan 2008
Posts: 1659

PostPosted: Wed Dec 18, 2013 8:04 am
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Hi Guys,

Thanks for your thoughts and analysis.

I considered raising as a bluff along a similar line to Darren's thinking, but my difference in analysis was that I just didn't see him folding a lot of the time. This is a drawy board and if he is on a semi-bluff him will be calling a huge % of the time - enough to make a raise not profitable in the long-term.If he has a set, he'll just 4-bet.

If he did call the flop 3 bet for say 120/130 then I am going to lose my eyes and fire a significant bullet on pretty much any turn, representing a flopped set and turning AK into a bluff.

There was also the situation of the cash game - 5 hours in, 600ish profit - I didn't fancy blowing it on one hand plus it was clear that villain and I were the best players. I'd invested 30 to this point in the hand - why did I suddenly want to invest my whole stack.

So I decided to fold - I wanted to see what others thought of the hand and situation and seems like people find a fold here a lot.

MattF - to your point, I decided to rack up straight after that hand and head home Wink
the shiver
LMS Champion


Joined: 02 Nov 2006
Posts: 1591

PostPosted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 6:25 pm
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Yep, your in a world of pain here.
If what u say about the previous hand is spot on when hes flatted with K9 on a K high board so his range here bluffs aside (and he isnt bluffing on ur previous info imo ) is KT+ then your rarely if ever in front to this player.
You're not overly invested but also now playing scared'ish
Not exactly the nicest spot 600 bigs deep and covered tho lol
Did the right thing imo Jon, swallowed for the 30 cashed out and booked a nice win wp
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It was one of the privileges of my poker life to watch Barny win his bracelet, putting on a master class in front of an audience who would have run onto the stage and carried him over the ****ing line if thats what it was going to take. There is bracelets and there is bracelets. This was one of the very special ones...Padraig Parkinson
TheBlueBoy
Straight Flush


Joined: 11 Oct 2009
Posts: 3945
Location: Just about done

PostPosted: Fri Dec 20, 2013 1:22 am
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the shiver wrote:
Yep, your in a world of pain here.
If what u say about the previous hand is spot on when hes flatted with K9 on a K high board so his range here bluffs aside (and he isnt bluffing on ur previous info imo ) is KT+ then your rarely if ever in front to this player.
You're not overly invested but also now playing scared'ish
Not exactly the nicest spot 600 bigs deep and covered tho lol
Did the right thing imo Jon, swallowed for the 30 cashed out and booked a nice win wp


You were how many bb in front, he's gutted that you're leaving, doesn't matter who we win off does it?
Takes a lot to just quit, fair play.
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Yes, it was 4-0, you obviously saw the game in the pub and think all your players are 3 inches tall. Next question.
ReggieK
The Guvnor


Joined: 16 Oct 2005
Posts: 5759

PostPosted: Fri Dec 20, 2013 1:27 am
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Crap when he raises you there.
I let him have the 30, chuck him 3 for a pint, say well done, then bugger off out of there for a well deserved large doner Mr. Green
TheBlueBoy
Straight Flush


Joined: 11 Oct 2009
Posts: 3945
Location: Just about done

PostPosted: Fri Dec 20, 2013 1:32 am
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ReggieK wrote:
Crap when he raises you there.
I let him have the 30, chuck him 3 for a pint, say well done, then bugger off out of there for a well deserved large doner Mr. Green


Ain't I just said the same thing Reg. Takes about 3 days to realise that walking away is 100% the best option.
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Yes, it was 4-0, you obviously saw the game in the pub and think all your players are 3 inches tall. Next question.
ReggieK
The Guvnor


Joined: 16 Oct 2005
Posts: 5759

PostPosted: Fri Dec 20, 2013 1:36 am
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Yeah, I wouldn't fancy spunking half of it back in that spot there.
I'd be well chuffed at the profit, and if he's bluffing which I don't think he is, well he can keep the 30 notes and be happy with it
the shiver
LMS Champion


Joined: 02 Nov 2006
Posts: 1591

PostPosted: Fri Dec 20, 2013 3:56 am
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ReggieK wrote:
Yeah, I wouldn't fancy spunking half of it back in that spot there.
I'd be well chuffed at the profit, and if he's bluffing which I don't think he is, well he can keep the 30 notes and be happy with it


Two Sticks is all in when villain repops it to 50 notes here Very Happy
_________________
It was one of the privileges of my poker life to watch Barny win his bracelet, putting on a master class in front of an audience who would have run onto the stage and carried him over the ****ing line if thats what it was going to take. There is bracelets and there is bracelets. This was one of the very special ones...Padraig Parkinson
ReggieK
The Guvnor


Joined: 16 Oct 2005
Posts: 5759

PostPosted: Fri Dec 20, 2013 10:23 am
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the shiver wrote:
ReggieK wrote:
Yeah, I wouldn't fancy spunking half of it back in that spot there.
I'd be well chuffed at the profit, and if he's bluffing which I don't think he is, well he can keep the 30 notes and be happy with it


Two Sticks is all in when villain repops it to 50 notes here Very Happy


LOL Mr. Green

A look, a puff on his electronic fag, then a waggle of his hands "all in" Smile
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