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Brodders
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:30 am
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I like the look of 3 games in the Champions League tonight -

Arsenal v Dortmund

Dortmund with DNB - 3 points @ 2.12
Dortmund to win - 3 points @ 2.94
Over 3 goals - 5 points @ 2.07

Arsenal are in tremendous form at the moment and the addition of Mesut Ozil has really given them a bucketload of confidence going into this game but I can't quite believe the odds on Dortmund here. They are a proven quality side and although their away record looks poor on the face of it, they have played some top teams and been unlucky not to get wins against the likes of Man City, Real Madrid and Shakhtar (when they had Willian and Mikhtryan) I see this being a very open game as neither side can defend particularly well and I definitely think that both teams will score but Arsenal have an issue playing German sides. The last 2 they played were Schalke 2 years ago and Bayern last year, losing both their home games against them (0-2 and 1-3). German sides have a certain pattern of play which I think Arsenal struggle with and I see this game turning into a 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3 type of game. With the odds on offer then the above bets were massive value imo. I split the stake on the Dortmund win between DNB and straight up out of respect for how Arsenal are playing but I do think that Dortmund are going to have too much for them tonight.

Porto v Zenit

Over 2.5 goals - 7 points @ 2.02

This is another really interesting game. Zenit know that if they want to qualify for the next round, they have to take at least 4 points from their games against Porto. You may remember that I don't rate this Porto side very highly and backed Atletico to beat them in their last game but having watched it, Atletico were fortunate to win. Porto are still incredibly hard to beat at home and they just miss a really good finisher to make them a fantastic European side again. Helpfully for them they are playing a Zenit side who are terrible at the back. I don't see any way that they will believe they can get a draw tonight by putting men behind the ball and trying to keep Porto out. Their natural game is to go forwards and they have a number of very talented attackers with the likes of Hulk and Danny. Zenit probably aren't good enough at this level to get away with it (they lost 3-1 at Atletico) but I could see another open game with both teams scoring. It could end up 2-1 or 3-1 to Porto or something silly like 2-2 but odds against on over 2.5 goals is a must for me. Lots of people seem to be looking to lay Porto, which I get, but their last performance against Atletico convinced me that they're still good enough to beat a suspect away side like Zenit.

Marseille v Napoli

Napoli to win - 7 points @ 2.70

I can scarcely believe the odds on this ! Napoli know that they are up against 2 very hard opponents in Arsenal and Dortmund so the 2 games against Marseille are must wins for all of those clubs. Marseille aren't bad but they are in a run of poor form, having lost their last 3 games in all competitions and seem to lack the quality that they need to harm sides at this level. Gagnac isn't in the form he was last year and Napoli have looked very strong under Benitez this year. It's worth bearing in mind what a fantastic tactician Benitez is in European football and with the quality of the squad he has there, then I fancy them to do well. Certainly getting odds of 2.70 on the win are enormous and well worth taking imo. I toyed with DNB @ c.1.9 but the outright win was huge.
Rigsby
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:37 pm
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nice shout on dortmund and napoli Clap
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:38 pm
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Local bookies had a poster advertising odds on a Dortmund 2-1 win, first time I have seen a poster with the correct score.
Nem
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:27 am
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Lol at saying arsenal can't defend. Their center back partnership is possibly the best in the epl.
Brodders
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 6:42 am
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Nem wrote:
Lol at saying arsenal can't defend. Their center back partnership is possibly the best in the epl.


What did you make of the first 2 goals ? Defensive mistakes much ?!

In fairness I said neither side was particularly good in defence rather than they can't defend and I don't think that was disproved !
Nem
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:38 am
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Brodders wrote:
Nem wrote:
Lol at saying arsenal can't defend. Their center back partnership is possibly the best in the epl.


What did you make of the first 2 goals ? Defensive mistakes much ?!

In fairness I said neither side was particularly good in defence rather than they can't defend and I don't think that was disproved !


The first goal Ramsey tried to dribble out of the 20 yards mark and mugged, he's a midfielder. The 2nd goal was poor defending by the full backs, but it was also a very good goal.
Brodders
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:52 am
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Nem wrote:
Brodders wrote:
Nem wrote:
Lol at saying arsenal can't defend. Their center back partnership is possibly the best in the epl.


What did you make of the first 2 goals ? Defensive mistakes much ?!

In fairness I said neither side was particularly good in defence rather than they can't defend and I don't think that was disproved !


The first goal Ramsey tried to dribble out of the 20 yards mark and mugged, he's a midfielder. The 2nd goal was poor defending by the full backs, but it was also a very good goal.


Having a good defence is not just about your back 4 !! Would you say trying to dribble out in that part of the pitch was sensible defensively ?!

I suspect we'll have to agree to disagree !
Nem
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:30 am
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Brodders wrote:
Nem wrote:
Brodders wrote:
Nem wrote:
Lol at saying arsenal can't defend. Their center back partnership is possibly the best in the epl.


What did you make of the first 2 goals ? Defensive mistakes much ?!

In fairness I said neither side was particularly good in defence rather than they can't defend and I don't think that was disproved !


The first goal Ramsey tried to dribble out of the 20 yards mark and mugged, he's a midfielder. The 2nd goal was poor defending by the full backs, but it was also a very good goal.


Having a good defence is not just about your back 4 !! Would you say trying to dribble out in that part of the pitch was sensible defensively ?!

I suspect we'll have to agree to disagree !


You can't judge a team's defence by the defending of an attacking midfielder.

Like blaming the RB for the strikers not scoring.
Brodders
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:17 am
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Nem wrote:
Brodders wrote:
Nem wrote:
Brodders wrote:
Nem wrote:
Lol at saying arsenal can't defend. Their center back partnership is possibly the best in the epl.


What did you make of the first 2 goals ? Defensive mistakes much ?!

In fairness I said neither side was particularly good in defence rather than they can't defend and I don't think that was disproved !


The first goal Ramsey tried to dribble out of the 20 yards mark and mugged, he's a midfielder. The 2nd goal was poor defending by the full backs, but it was also a very good goal.


Having a good defence is not just about your back 4 !! Would you say trying to dribble out in that part of the pitch was sensible defensively ?!

I suspect we'll have to agree to disagree !


You can't judge a team's defence by the defending of an attacking midfielder.

Like blaming the RB for the strikers not scoring.


Have you heard of defending as a team ?! My final point is that the first 2 goals came from defensive mistakes QED Very Happy
Grumbledook
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 2:51 pm
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funny thing is the only clean sheet arsenal have kept in the prem so far this season was against spurs

conceded in all the other 7 games
the shiver
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 4:58 pm
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Disappointed more with the fact that Nem watches Arsenal Shocked
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barmybadger
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:42 pm
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Nems hardly gonna bother watching the sheriff game to be fair
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Nem
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 6:09 pm
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barmybadger wrote:
Nems hardly gonna bother watching the sheriff game to be fair


This

I would rather see arsenal vs Dortmund than spurs vs sheriff.
the shiver
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 6:14 pm
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Nem wrote:

I would rather see arsenal vs Dortmund than spurs vs sheriff.


Disgraceful statement imho
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It was one of the privileges of my poker life to watch Barny win his bracelet, putting on a master class in front of an audience who would have run onto the stage and carried him over the ****ing line if thats what it was going to take. There is bracelets and there is bracelets. This was one of the very special ones...Padraig Parkinson
barmybadger
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 6:16 pm
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the shiver wrote:
Nem wrote:

I would rather see arsenal vs Dortmund than spurs vs sheriff.


Disgraceful statement imho


+1
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