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Ram
Mobster


Joined: 27 Jul 2004
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 07, 2009 9:25 am
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The Reverend
In Rhythm


Joined: 27 Aug 2004
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 07, 2009 11:15 am
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I think Andy has to fold anything except 22/44/A4 to the all-in, a very small part of his range even after the reraise. Ram made a very ballsy move and got unlucky IMO, as long as he knows Andy will fold 43 45 46 etc.
cottlad
Straight Flush


Joined: 30 Jun 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 07, 2009 11:47 am
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who is this Ram fellow plz?
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ReggieK
The Guvnor


Joined: 16 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 07, 2009 11:50 am
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Don't go broke in a limped pot Mr. Green
fraac
Banned


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 07, 2009 1:09 pm
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I don't like the raise to 300 with just an 8 card draw on a low board. Seems a high variance, cash game sort of move. In tournaments the only time I raise the flop with a draw is if there's a high card and he can put you on a pair when your draw hits.
Grumbledook
Royal Flush


Joined: 25 Dec 2003
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 07, 2009 1:24 pm
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the 3 fives and 3 threes could also be outs
fraac
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 07, 2009 1:28 pm
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Not if Black calls.
Grumbledook
Royal Flush


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 07, 2009 2:04 pm
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Spotted a mistake in the hand which is now sorted out, Black bet $100 on the flop before Ram raises to $300

Obviously with the reputations of Ram and Andy I don't think it is a given that Andy needs an overpair to carry on.
evelyn
Quads


Joined: 16 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 08, 2009 4:34 pm
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Grumbledook wrote:
Obviously with the reputations of Ram and Andy I don't think it is a given that Andy needs an overpair to carry on.


It's a maths problem really.If Ram has enough fold equity it's ok.At a guess I'd say he's short of the required FE despite all his possible outs because of his image (which he seems to be trying to cultivate further by posting this).
paddymick
Straight Flush


Joined: 08 Aug 2007
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Location: Leicester

PostPosted: Sun Aug 09, 2009 2:20 pm
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Be honest Ram it was a bit of a donkey play wasn't it?
Ram
Mobster


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 09, 2009 4:35 pm
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The thing was I got a bit fooled by Andy not raising preflop which I thought he would do with any pair from the button. On the flop when it's checked through to Andy and he bets I've ruled out Andy having a pair in his hand and am happy to get the check raise in looking to take down the pot.

When Andy makes it 1000 now I have to seriously consider that he has a 4 in his hand but I think he would have raised preflop if he had held A4, that means if he does have a 4 it should be with a low kicker, 45, 46 etc. and I think the reraise all-in can force him off those hands. I did consider A4 a possibility but thought that was pretty much the only hand he could have held which he wouldn't be able to lay down. Unfortunately I was wrong about that and he had opened the pot limping on the button with a pair.
Matt101
Straight Flush


Joined: 18 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 09, 2009 10:30 pm
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evelyn wrote:
Grumbledook wrote:
Obviously with the reputations of Ram and Andy I don't think it is a given that Andy needs an overpair to carry on.


It's a maths problem really.If Ram has enough fold equity it's ok.At a guess I'd say he's short of the required FE despite all his possible outs because of his image (which he seems to be trying to cultivate further by posting this).


Doesn't do his image any harm by making this sort of play on TV either!

I think this is probably standard for a player like Ram if he can be sure of his outs, a bit dodgy on a paired board though.

Who am I to question the mighty Ram though Very Happy
evelyn
Quads


Joined: 16 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 6:17 am
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Ram wrote:
When Andy makes it 1000 now I have to seriously consider that he has a 4 in his hand but I think he would have raised preflop if he had held A4, that means if he does have a 4 it should be with a low kicker, 45, 46 etc. and I think the reraise all-in can force him off those hands. I did consider A4 a possibility but thought that was pretty much the only hand he could have held which he wouldn't be able to lay down.


I'd broaden the range to include low pairs after the 1000 bet.I'm also not good enough to fold trip 4s myself here (there's not a lot beating it) so I wouldn't expect 45,46 to fold.
darrensprengers
Misclick


Joined: 10 Jul 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 8:56 am
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I think Rams play here is pretty standard tournament play. You are in the blinds in a unraised pot. You can represent anything, you have massive fold equity, and even if he calls you have equity for your draws(could be upto c50% if andy has ace high.). The 1000 bet from andy could also be a stone cold bluff and adds equity to the pot.

Ram is making andy make a decision for his tournament life with a pretty weak holding due to the preflop action. This is how you get chips in a tournament. You cant do it in every hand obviously.

I have been shoved on like this in every big tournament i have played in and it makes your top pair top kicker feel pretty small.
Alex B
Straight Flush


Joined: 25 Apr 2005
Posts: 2856
Location: London

PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 9:57 am
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If he calls with any 4 or better*, and we are optimistic about his limping range, our equity when called might be up to 20%. That means we're risking at least 2700 to win 1450.

That means that Black has to fold at least 65% of his flop bet-3betting hands in order for this to break even.

I doubt there are many players who put 1/4 of their stack into a limped pot planning to fold to a shove 2/3+ of the time, although I don't have any info on Black.

My conclusion - fold equity is less than 1450 and I think its less than 700 we're aiming at (he folds less than 50%). We're risking at least 2700 and it could be more like 3200 (if we have as little as 15% equity when called). Black would have to limp-bet-bluff3bet a huge amount of flops for this to be good, so I don't think its profitable.

(*This is to err on the side of optimism about our equity, NOT what I think his calling range, and therefore frequency, really is)
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