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balloo
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 12:48 pm
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Dean or someone please tell me what strong hands Helmuth has that would check the flop here?
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 1:05 pm
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JJ?
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Alex B
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 1:25 pm
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balloo wrote:
Dean or someone please tell me what strong hands Helmuth has that would check the flop here?


Alex B wrote:

PH raise to 27,800. Since PH checked the flop and plays pot control on the turn with medium made hands, the only hand that makes sense is 33. That seems a lot less likely than a bluff or semi-bluff so Dwan is suspicious and calls...

...River Qd... ...In favour of air, his line makes no real hand look that likely. In favour of a flush his turn raise could have been a semi-bluff.
balloo
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 1:27 pm
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Alex B wrote:
balloo wrote:
Dean or someone please tell me what strong hands Helmuth has that would check the flop here?


Alex B wrote:

PH raise to 27,800. Since PH checked the flop and plays pot control on the turn with medium made hands, the only hand that makes sense is 33. That seems a lot less likely than a bluff or semi-bluff so Dwan is suspicious and calls...

...River Qd... ...In favour of air, his line makes no real hand look that likely. In favour of a flush his turn raise could have been a semi-bluff.



So he is repping 33.....Pretty narrow range....
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 2:46 pm
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balloo wrote:
Dean or someone please tell me what strong hands Helmuth has that would check the flop here?



I thought I had already answered this but evidently I didnt explain myself well enough. As someone has already pointed out, we may be guilty of going too deeply into this but once again this is a symptom of not knowing the true facts.

High level poker is simply not about ranges, this is not my opinion.....its a fact. To show what I mean, I will invent a totally hypothetical and silly Hellmuth versus Dwan situation but in this instance I will give it a bit of history.

Now let us assume in this example that Dwan had either open raised or re-raised pre-flop for 20 consecutive hands. During this time, Hellmuth hadnt played a single hand including defending his blinds.

On hand 21 of this sequence Dwan open raises with the same hand that he held in the hand that is being discussed but in this instance Hellmuth re-raises with 7-3. A play based purely on the images of the two players and what has gone before (and all of the intricacies that this entails). Now deal the exact turn, flop and river as we had in the real hand.

The entire play of the hand is based on factors that have nothing to do with hand strength from Hellmuths point of view. He could also have easily played AA in this fashion so it is possible for him to be holding ANY hand.

The factors that govern play in highstakes poker bear no relation to strategy employed by someone who is multi-tabling at $2-$4 for example. If anyone thinks that they can correctly identify the ranges of any world class player as easily as this then they are badly mistaken......or the player isnt world class.

The variables involved in selecting lines of play are vast and go beyond discussing hand ranges which I think is intermediate level at best. Plus the entire line itself must have total flexibility in how it is played from street to street and was why I said earlier that you cannot be committed to doing something on the river merely because of your earlier play. The fact that I think that Dwan made a mistake on the river is irrelevant. If he had simply reflex called the river purely and simply because of how he had played and the pot odds then he would be just as guilty of playing badly.

If it was so easy to identify the range of a world class player then we would all be playing world class poker and this style of poker would be all too easy replicated by everyone. The factors that decide how a certain hand is played at world class level are so varied that it is almost chaotic in nature and thus makes predicting a range very difficult.....if not impossible at high stakes NLHE.

Ranges inhabit the location that is intermediate level poker.

PS.....The river odds that Dwan was getting coupled with the play of the hand must have made Dwan think that his deuces were ahead of Hellmuths possible range ON THAT HAND......but yet he folded. Therefore the immense psychology of the situation alters the dynamics.

Hellmuth tricked Dwan into believing that his range was tighter than it actually was and this is precisely what I am referring to. I am convinced that Dwan would have called this bet had this game been played online.


The Dean
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Last edited by The Dean on Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:02 pm; edited 1 time in total
barmybadger
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 2:59 pm
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sensing an angry response Twisted Evil
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:25 pm
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The Dean how can you be a poker strategy writer and write/believe what you just posted. Unless it was a joke of course.
Brit_Abroad
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:35 pm
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The Dean wrote:
balloo wrote:
Dean or someone please tell me what strong hands Helmuth has that would check the flop here?


Ranges inhabit the location that is intermediate level poker.


Interesting comment - not one that I can support or disagree with being a humble intermediate at best.

However I have read a comment recently from Brian Townsend where he states that hand ranges and knowing his equity against them is key to his play.

Do you consider him an intermediate?
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:55 pm
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Brit_Abroad wrote:
The Dean wrote:
balloo wrote:
Dean or someone please tell me what strong hands Helmuth has that would check the flop here?


Ranges inhabit the location that is intermediate level poker.


Interesting comment - not one that I can support or disagree with being a humble intermediate at best.

However I have read a comment recently from Brian Townsend where he states that hand ranges and knowing his equity against them is key to his play.

Do you consider him an intermediate?




Of course not.......but what we are talking about here is in fully comprehending what he has said and the context of it. I seriously doubt that Brian Townsend would automatically follow everything that he has said on CardRunners when he plays highstakes live games in the same way that Brunson wouldnt automatically do everything that he talked about in SS and Harrington in Harrington on Hold'em.

Actually before this gets ugly.....I would just like to say that I meant nothing negative with that statement. If this came out as being pompous or demeaning to certain people then I apologise here and now because this was not its intention.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 4:16 pm
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I have to disagree also, poker is about nothing but hand ranges and your equity against them.

We could say, though, that "world class players" in addition to reading players well;

1)Use balanced lines making their hand ranges wide and their exact hand or type of hand (draw/made etc) broadly unreadable.

2)Have very fluid hand ranges expertly manipulated to account for the psychology of the situation.

3)Have an understanding of when a weaker opponent won't have correctly judged their hand range, and so can make an ad-hoc very profitable exploitive play even it would be transparant to another world class player.

I think the combination of the above carries The Dean's meaning without contradicting Brit or Townsend.

Hellmuth was pushing 3) at the expense of 1) and we could see that Dwan was somewhat aware of this.

I think that, to some extent, Dwan could make the 'mistake' of passing here because Hellmuth is usually poor at (1), and although Dwan knew he was pushing (3), it probably actually just corrected his play as per (1) to something more optimal, making it a bad spot for a hero call and little difference in EV whatever the decision.

A better summary - Dwan knows Hellmuth doesn't bluff enough in that spot; Dwan thinks it is more likely than average that Hellmuth is bluffing right now; Dwan thinks it still can't be a leak to fold to Hellmuth in that spot.

Perhaps if he could read people better he could narrow Hellmuth's range right down to high-card hands and no valuebets?. (But he would still be playing against a "range" Smile !)
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 6:24 pm
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Alex B wrote:
I have to disagree also, poker is about nothing but hand ranges and your equity against them.

We could say, though, that "world class players" in addition to reading players well;

1)Use balanced lines making their hand ranges wide and their exact hand or type of hand (draw/made etc) broadly unreadable.

2)Have very fluid hand ranges expertly manipulated to account for the psychology of the situation.

3)Have an understanding of when a weaker opponent won't have correctly judged their hand range, and so can make an ad-hoc very profitable exploitive play even it would be transparant to another world class player.

I think the combination of the above carries The Dean's meaning without contradicting Brit or Townsend.

Hellmuth was pushing 3) at the expense of 1) and we could see that Dwan was somewhat aware of this.

I think that, to some extent, Dwan could make the 'mistake' of passing here because Hellmuth is usually poor at (1), and although Dwan knew he was pushing (3), it probably actually just corrected his play as per (1) to something more optimal, making it a bad spot for a hero call and little difference in EV whatever the decision.

A better summary - Dwan knows Hellmuth doesn't bluff enough in that spot; Dwan thinks it is more likely than average that Hellmuth is bluffing right now; Dwan thinks it still can't be a leak to fold to Hellmuth in that spot.

Perhaps if he could read people better he could narrow Hellmuth's range right down to high-card hands and no valuebets?. (But he would still be playing against a "range" Smile !)





Why did I just know that Alex B would put this across far more intelligently and eloquently than me Laughing
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2008 9:47 am
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balloo wrote:
Dean or someone please tell me what strong hands Helmuth has that would check the flop here?


AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AJ, KJ, QJ. any flush draw, 22, 77 or 33 (for the set)

I think all this talk about hand ranges does not take into account hellmuths playing style he checks after raising pre flop more than he continues and you could even say it is his standard play where other players standard play is to continuation bet IMO phil could raise the turn with any of the above hands to try to force a big pot and maximize value after his flop deseption. I can only remember 2 instances where hellmuth played a set strongly on the flop 1st against david peat where I thought hellmuth thought peat was strong on the K high flop and went the throat and when he was ultra short stacked, he is defiantly a unique player and almost no one else has the same playing style and very few are even slightly similar.

I think what the dean meant by saying world class players don't use hand ranges is that at the highest level of poker hand ranges are huge and all of the top players no their opponents relative hand range- psychological tactics are as much a part of the game as hand ranges(in live play)- as alex has noted above, and they in fact change the ranges by building up a picture in the other players mind to try to influence their thinking to gain an advantage. so what im trying to say is when someone bets allot of money you put them on a range of hands but with psychology this range can be altered completely. This is not to say hand ranges are not the basis of play- they are, but in live games(and internet too but not anywere near on the same scale) the psychological element changes everything!
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